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Recent Form

New York Mets

  • Lvs NYY5-2
  • Wvs NYY6-3
  • Wvs NYY7-6 F/10
  • W@ WSH16-7 F/12
  • L@ WSH9-6

Miami Marlins

  • L@ TB7-2
  • W@ TB10-5 F/10
  • L@ TB6-3
  • Wvs ATL12-0
  • Lvs ATL8-4

Game Read

A transparent matchup read built from team strength, recent scoreboard history, league volatility, and available starter/bullpen context. It is analysis, not betting advice.

Day GameOutdoor1:40 PM ET62°F · 20 mph wind · drizzleCold-weather game · 20 mph windMLB.TVMarlins.TV
Projected leanNew York Mets

Miami Marlins 4.3 · New York Mets 4.3

51%confidence
Miami Marlins22-27-0.1 net/g (schedule-adjusted +0.1) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 50%
New York Mets21-27-2-0.2 net/g (schedule-adjusted -0.3) · expected win rate 48% · last 10: 60%
Home VenueCiti FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating points

The projection leans New York Mets because Miami Marlins owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and New York Mets has the recent-form edge. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Model: rafty-v2.0. Inputs: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed, schedule-adjusted margin, recent form, rest, home venue, league volatility, and MLB starter/bullpen context when available. Refreshes whenever game pages republish.

Interactive Rafty tool

Rafty Game Lab

Move the context sliders to see how Rafty’s matchup lean reacts before it becomes a public pick.

rafty-v2.0
Current lean New York Mets
51% New York Mets win probability 51%

Move a control to see what would swing the pick.

    Why This Pick?

    • New York Mets: Team baseline+1.8
    • New York Mets: Home venue+1.0
    • Miami Marlins: Bullpen rest-0.5
    Model check
    Live model: New York Mets 51%
    v3 candidate: Miami Marlins 72%
    Different pick; home probability -23.3 pp, confidence +20.9 pp
    • Miami Marlins: day start profile -1.31
    • Miami Marlins: away rest hours capped -0.20
    • New York Mets: home rest hours capped +0.12
    Preview v3 controls
    Copies or saves the current sliders and toggles.
    Scenario presets

    For entertainment and analysis only. This tool does not use betting odds, spreads, parlays, or wagering advice.

    Key Players to Watch

    Miami Marlins

    New York Mets

    Injury Report

    New York Mets

    Joe JacquesDay-To-DayA.J. Minter60-Day-ILJared Young10-Day-ILJorge Polanco10-Day-ILJose RojasDay-To-Day

    Miami Marlins

    Griffin Conine10-Day-ILRobby Snelling15-Day-ILKemp AldermanDay-To-DayRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
    On The Diamond

    A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

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