Skip to content

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor7:10 PM ET
Model pickKansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals 5.2 · Cincinnati Reds 3.4

68%confidence
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Cincinnati Reds22-20-0.9 net/g (SOS-adj -1.0) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 20%
Venue EdgeGreat American Ball ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Kansas City Royals is the model’s call — Kansas City Royals on the margin numbers, Kansas City Royals on the form numbers. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Kansas City Royals is 70% over their recent sample; Cincinnati Reds is 20%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Kansas City Royals

Cincinnati Reds

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

Back to GameCast · Open today’s scores

Trending