CIN @ STL
Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Cincinnati Reds 3.5 · St. Louis Cardinals 5.4
The model leans St. Louis Cardinals because St. Louis Cardinals owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and St. Louis Cardinals has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Three things to watch
- Form gap. St. Louis Cardinals is 55% over their recent sample; Cincinnati Reds is 20%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
- Net efficiency. St. Louis Cardinals projects 51% from points-for vs points-allowed; Cincinnati Reds sits at 41%.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Cincinnati Reds
- Andrew Abbott SP · #41
- Brady Singer SP · #51
- Elly De La Cruz SS · #44
- Matt McLain 2B · #9
St. Louis Cardinals
- Matthew Liberatore SP · #32
- Andre Pallante SP · #53
- Ivan Herrera C · #48
- JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.