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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameIndoor1:40 PM ET
Model pickTampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays 5.1 · Miami Marlins 3.4

68%confidence
Tampa Bay Rays27-13-1+0.6 net/g (SOS-adj +0.7) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Miami Marlins19-23-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.0) · expected win rate 48% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Tampa Bay Rays gets the model’s nod thanks to Tampa Bay Rays’s margin advantage, with Tampa Bay Rays’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Tampa Bay Rays is 85% over their recent sample; Miami Marlins is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Tampa Bay Rays projects 56% from points-for vs points-allowed; Miami Marlins sits at 48%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Tampa Bay Rays

Miami Marlins

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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