ARI @ STL
Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Arizona Diamondbacks 3.9 · St. Louis Cardinals 5.1
St. Louis Cardinals gets the model’s nod thanks to St. Louis Cardinals’s margin advantage, with St. Louis Cardinals’s recent run providing the second tip. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Three things to watch
- Form gap. St. Louis Cardinals is 55% over their recent sample; Arizona Diamondbacks is 30%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
- Net efficiency. St. Louis Cardinals projects 51% from points-for vs points-allowed; Arizona Diamondbacks sits at 44%.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
St. Louis Cardinals
- Matthew Liberatore SP · #32
- Andre Pallante SP · #53
- Ivan Herrera C · #48
- JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.