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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor12:35 PM ET
Model pickPittsburgh Pirates

Seattle Mariners 3.7 · Pittsburgh Pirates 5.1

68%confidence
Seattle Mariners19-22+0.0 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh Pirates’s scoring margin profile and Pittsburgh Pirates’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Pittsburgh Pirates is 60% over their recent sample; Seattle Mariners is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Pittsburgh Pirates projects 57% from points-for vs points-allowed; Seattle Mariners sits at 51%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Seattle Mariners

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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