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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:15 PM CT
Model pickSt. Louis Cardinals

Miami Marlins 4.1 · St. Louis Cardinals 4.7

60%confidence
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeBusch StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans St. Louis Cardinals because St. Louis Cardinals owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and St. Louis Cardinals has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. St. Louis Cardinals is 55% over their recent sample; Miami Marlins is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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