Skip to content

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT
Model pickKansas City Royals

Miami Marlins 4.1 · Kansas City Royals 4.5

59%confidence
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeKauffman StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Kansas City Royals because Miami Marlins owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Kansas City Royals has the recent-form edge. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Kansas City Royals is 70% over their recent sample; Miami Marlins is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Miami Marlins

Kansas City Royals

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

Trending