NYM @ MIA
loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
New York Mets 3.8 · Miami Marlins 4.4
The model leans Miami Marlins because Miami Marlins owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and New York Mets has the recent-form edge. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Three things to watch
- Form gap. New York Mets is 55% over their recent sample; Miami Marlins is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
- Net efficiency. Miami Marlins projects 49% from points-for vs points-allowed; New York Mets sits at 41%.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
New York Mets
- Freddy Peralta SP · #51
- Clay Holmes SP · #35
- Tobias Myers RP · #32
- Bo Bichette 3B · #19
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.