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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor7:10 PM ET
Model pickNew York Mets

Baltimore Orioles 3.7 · New York Mets 4.8

68%confidence
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeCiti FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

New York Mets is the model’s call — New York Mets on the margin numbers, New York Mets on the form numbers. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. New York Mets is 55% over their recent sample; Baltimore Orioles is 30%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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