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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Afternoon GameOutdoor4:05 PM ET
Model pickWashington Nationals

New York Mets 4.1 · Washington Nationals 4.9

61%confidence
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Washington Nationals19-22-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeNationals ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pick goes to Washington Nationals on the back of Washington Nationals’s margin work and New York Mets’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Three things to watch

  • Net efficiency. Washington Nationals projects 47% from points-for vs points-allowed; New York Mets sits at 41%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

Washington Nationals

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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