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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor3:10 PM ET
Model pickPittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates 5.0 · Detroit Tigers 3.9

68%confidence
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeComerica ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pittsburgh Pirates gets the model’s nod thanks to Pittsburgh Pirates’s margin advantage, with Pittsburgh Pirates’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Pittsburgh Pirates is 60% over their recent sample; Detroit Tigers is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Pittsburgh Pirates projects 57% from points-for vs points-allowed; Detroit Tigers sits at 51%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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