MIN @ SA
Frost Bank Center · San Antonio, TX
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor8:30 PM CTPeacock
Result readMinnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves 104 · San Antonio Spurs 102
Final
Minnesota Timberwolves54-37-1+2.8 net/g (SOS-adj +2.9) · expected win rate 58% · last 10: 60%
San Antonio Spurs68-23+8.5 net/g (SOS-adj +8.4) · expected win rate 74% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeFrost Bank CenterHome adjustment: +2.2 rating pts
Minnesota Timberwolves gets the model’s nod thanks to San Antonio Spurs’s margin advantage, with San Antonio Spurs’s recent run providing the second tip. Three-point variance and free-throw rate move this number more than total field-goal percentage does.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: San Antonio Spurs at 88%. Actual: Minnesota Timberwolves by 2.
Pre-game pick: San Antonio Spurs at 88%. Actual: Minnesota Timberwolves by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Donte DiVincenzo G · #0
- Julius Randle F · #30
- Rudy Gobert C · #27
- Jaden McDaniels F · #3
San Antonio Spurs
- De'Aaron Fox G · #4
- Julian Champagnie F · #30
- Stephon Castle G · #5
- Victor Wembanyama F · #1
Game Leaders
Minnesota TimberwolvesJulius Randle21 pts
San Antonio SpursDylan Harper18 pts
Injury Report
San Antonio Spurs
David Jones GarciaOut
Minnesota Timberwolves
Donte DiVincenzoOut
On The Court
A quick look at where each team's starters slot in. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏀 DunkDylan Harper makes 1-foot running dunk104–102
- 🏀 DunkVictor Wembanyama makes driving dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)104–100
- ScoreJulius Randle makes 8-foot two point shot104–98
- ScoreJulian Champagnie makes two point shot102–98
- ScoreRudy Gobert makes free throw 2 of 2102–96
- ScoreJulian Champagnie makes two point shot101–96
Scoring by Period
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 24 | 21 | 24 | 35 | 104 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 23 | 22 | 27 | 30 | 102 |
Team Stats
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Stat | San Antonio Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| 41-90 | FG | 39-87 |
| 10-26 | 3PT | 10-36 |
| 12-21 | FT | 14-18 |
| 46 | REB | 47 |
| 20 | AST | 24 |
| 7 | STL | 4 |
| 5 | BLK | 14 |
| 10 | TO | 13 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle F· | 41 | 21 | 8-20 | 2-6 | 3-6 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -3 |
| Jaden McDaniels F· | 36 | 16 | 7-14 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -2 |
| Rudy Gobert C· | 30 | 7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | +2 |
| Mike Conley G· | 24 | 12 | 4-8 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +13 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. G· | 35 | 16 | 5-13 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -10 |
| Naz Reid C | 30 | 12 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +15 |
| Jaylen Clark G | 7 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Bones Hyland G | 12 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| Anthony Edwards G | 25 | 18 | 8-13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Champagnie F· | 32 | 17 | 7-12 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +7 |
| Victor Wembanyama F· | 40 | 11 | 5-17 | 0-8 | 1-2 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 3 | +5 |
| De'Aaron Fox G· | 33 | 10 | 5-14 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -13 |
| Devin Vassell G· | 36 | 14 | 5-11 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | +7 |
| Stephon Castle G· | 28 | 17 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 6-8 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | +4 |
| Harrison Barnes F | 10 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 |
| Keldon Johnson F | 24 | 11 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -13 |
| Luke Kornet C | 8 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -7 |
| Dylan Harper G | 29 | 18 | 7-13 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 1st Quarter · 2:50Naz Reid lost ball turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)
- 4th Quarter · 0.0End of Game
- 4th Quarter · 0.0End of the 4th Quarter
- 4th Quarter · 0.0Spurs offensive team rebound
- 4th Quarter · 0.0Julian Champagnie misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
- 4th Quarter · 6.2Dylan Harper defensive rebound
- 4th Quarter · 8.0Julius Randle misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
- 4th Quarter · 30.9Dylan Harper makes 1-foot running dunk104–102
- 4th Quarter · 32.8Anthony Edwards bad pass turnover (Devin Vassell steals)
- 4th Quarter · 34.4Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert
- 4th Quarter · 43.6Victor Wembanyama makes driving dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)104–100
- 4th Quarter · 49.5Julius Randle makes 8-foot two point shot104–98
Scoring Plays
- 4th Quarter · 30.9Dylan Harper makes 1-foot running dunk104–102
- 4th Quarter · 43.6Victor Wembanyama makes driving dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)104–100
- 4th Quarter · 49.5Julius Randle makes 8-foot two point shot104–98
- 4th Quarter · 1:07Julian Champagnie makes two point shot102–98
- 4th Quarter · 1:19Rudy Gobert makes free throw 2 of 2102–96
- 4th Quarter · 1:34Julian Champagnie makes two point shot101–96
- 4th Quarter · 1:44Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2101–94
- 4th Quarter · 1:44Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2100–94
- 4th Quarter · 2:02De'Aaron Fox makes running layup99–94
- 4th Quarter · 3:00Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 299–92
- 4th Quarter · 3:20Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 2 of 299–91
- 4th Quarter · 3:20Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 1 of 298–91
- 4th Quarter · 3:31Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)97–91
- 4th Quarter · 3:41Julius Randle makes 13-foot two point shot97–88
- 4th Quarter · 4:04De'Aaron Fox makes two point shot95–88
- 4th Quarter · 4:42Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)95–86
- 4th Quarter · 5:18Naz Reid makes two point shot92–86
- 4th Quarter · 6:28Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot (Mike Conley assists)90–86
- 4th Quarter · 6:39Stephon Castle makes free throw 2 of 288–86
- 4th Quarter · 6:39Stephon Castle makes free throw 1 of 288–85
- 4th Quarter · 6:49Anthony Edwards makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot88–84
- 4th Quarter · 7:23Anthony Edwards makes 1-foot two point shot86–84
- 4th Quarter · 8:10Julius Randle makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)84–84
- 4th Quarter · 8:22De'Aaron Fox makes running layup (Stephon Castle assists)81–84
- 4th Quarter · 8:42Stephon Castle makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)81–82