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InTheRafters.com

MTL @ BUF

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor7:00 PM ET🥅 Jakub Dobes vs Alex LyonHBO Max
Result readBuffalo Sabres

Montreal Canadiens 2 · Buffalo Sabres 4

Final
Montreal Canadiens53-38+0.3 net/g (SOS-adj +0.4) · expected win rate 55% · last 10: 50%
Buffalo Sabres55-35+0.6 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 59% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeKeyBank CenterHome adjustment: +1.7 rating pts

Buffalo Sabres gets the model’s nod thanks to Buffalo Sabres’s margin advantage, with Buffalo Sabres’s recent run providing the second tip. Faceoff wins at center ice and PK discipline are the real swings — even strength tends to wash.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Buffalo Sabres at 63%. Actual: Buffalo Sabres by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Montreal Canadiens

Buffalo Sabres

Game Leaders

Montreal CanadiensKirby Dach1
Buffalo SabresJosh Doan1

Injury Report

Buffalo Sabres

Noah OstlundOut
On The Ice

Lines and pairings sketched from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Montreal Canadiens
JS J. Slafkovsky LW · #20 NS Nick Suzuki C · #14 CC Cole Caufield RW · #13 LH Lane Hutson LD · #48 ND Noah Dobson RD · #53 JD Jakub Dobes G · #75
Buffalo Sabres
ZB Zach Benson LW · #6 TT Tage Thompson C · #72 AT Alex Tuch RW · #89 RD Rasmus Dahlin LD · #26 BB Bowen Byram RD · #4 AL Alex Lyon G · #34

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 🥅 GoalKirby Dach Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (4)2nd · 16:312–4
  2. 🥅 GoalBowen Byram Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (2)2nd · 9:011–4
  3. 🥅 GoalJordan Greenway Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (1)2nd · 3:321–3
  4. 🥅 GoalNick Suzuki Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (1), Ivan Demidov (2)1st · 19:161–2
  5. 🥅 GoalRyan McLeod Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (3), Josh Doan (3)1st · 13:260–2
  6. 🥅 GoalJosh Doan Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (2)1st · 4:310–1

Scoring by Period

TeamP1P2P3T
Montreal Canadiens1102
Buffalo Sabres2204

Team Stats

Montreal Canadiens Stat Buffalo Sabres
1PPG2
6PIM4
32FO Won19
31Hits27
4Takeaways5

Montreal Canadiens

PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Josh Anderson RW020015:460:002:5412:5217020000000.0100
Zack Bolduc RW05108:530:050:008:4812011000000.0200
Cole Caufield RW010-119:083:130:0015:5518010200000.0000
Kirby Dach C02009:460:050:009:4113130100010.0000
Phillip Danault C030015:200:003:2111:59190001109469.2000
Ivan Demidov RW010018:193:130:0015:0618001220000.0000
Jake Evans C110015:490:002:2613:23200002009469.2000
Alex Newhook C030016:520:052:3014:17200304001233.3000
Juraj Slafkovsky LW011-119:413:130:0016:2818031410000.0000
Nick Suzuki C020-121:023:130:0017:491913031010855.6012
Alexandre Texier LW000011:440:000:0011:441602011010100.0100
Joe Veleno C05008:330:000:078:261000010020100.0000
PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Alexandre Carrier D001-118:450:003:1715:2824010020000.0000
Noah Dobson D200024:090:050:0024:0424000210000.0000
Kaiden Guhle D321018:220:052:1416:0320000010000.0012
Lane Hutson D200026:423:130:4122:4823020400000.0112
Mike Matheson D300-121:000:005:0615:5423010110000.0200
Arber Xhekaj D13007:420:000:007:4211000010000.0000
PlayerGASASOSSOSASVSV%ESSVPPSVSHSVTOIYTDGPIM
Jakub Dobes G4160012.75093056:4800

Buffalo Sabres

PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Zach Benson LW020116:562:330:0514:1823032100000.0000
Josh Doan RW020117:262:340:0014:5224121300000.0200
Jordan Greenway LW050113:030:002:0710:56171101201150.0100
Tyson Kozak C000110:560:000:0010:56140001101420.0000
Peyton Krebs C040-114:020:070:0013:55170200002528.6200
Beck Malenstyn LW150110:360:000:519:4515010000000.0012
Ryan McLeod C002014:332:231:0211:08201112003633.3000
Josh Norris C030117:082:520:0514:112101000011761.1000
Jack Quinn RW001015:192:350:0012:4417000140000.0100
Tage Thompson C010-118:283:040:0015:24210200101712.5100
Alex Tuch RW100-119:163:052:2613:4522040140010.0300
Jason Zucker LW100014:152:590:0011:1617000010010.0100
PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Bowen Byram D010121:132:520:4817:3326140210000.0200
Rasmus Dahlin D300121:042:470:0018:1723010410000.0012
Owen Power D200018:410:240:5617:2125000000000.0000
Mattias Samuelsson D020121:350:002:2219:1323021000000.0200
Logan Stanley D221012:520:000:0512:4716000000000.0000
Conor Timmins D301-119:390:002:2517:1422000000000.0000
PlayerGASASOSSOSASVSV%ESSVPPSVSHSVTOIYTDGPIM
Alex Lyon G2280026.929222259:4000

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 3rd · 20:00Game End
  2. 3rd · 20:00End of 3rd Period
  3. 3rd · 19:43Jake Evans faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
  4. 3rd · 19:43Puck in Benches
  5. 3rd · 19:27Noah Dobson shot blocked by Conor Timmins
  6. 3rd · 19:10Ivan Demidov Snap Shot Wide Left
  7. 3rd · 19:03Juraj Slafkovský Tip-In Wide Left
  8. 3rd · 18:53Josh Doan hit Nick Suzuki
  9. 3rd · 18:29Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Josh Norris
  10. 3rd · 18:29Off-side
  11. 3rd · 17:55Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon
  12. 3rd · 17:51Nick Suzuki Slap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

Scoring Plays

  1. 2nd · 16:31Kirby Dach Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (4)2–4
  2. 2nd · 9:01Bowen Byram Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (2)1–4
  3. 2nd · 3:32Jordan Greenway Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (1)1–3
  4. 1st · 19:16Nick Suzuki Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (1), Ivan Demidov (2)1–2
  5. 1st · 13:26Ryan McLeod Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (3), Josh Doan (3)0–2
  6. 1st · 4:31Josh Doan Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (2)0–1

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