MTL @ BUF
KeyBank Center · Buffalo, NY
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor7:00 PM ET🥅 Jakub Dobes vs Alex LyonHBO Max
Result readMontreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens 5 · Buffalo Sabres 1
Final
Montreal Canadiens54-39+0.4 net/g (SOS-adj +0.4) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 50%
Buffalo Sabres56-36+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 59% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeKeyBank CenterHome adjustment: +1.7 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Montreal Canadiens: Buffalo Sabres’s scoring margin profile and Buffalo Sabres’s recent stretch. Goalie SV% over the last five starts is the variable my margin number can't fully price.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Buffalo Sabres at 64%. Actual: Montreal Canadiens by 4.
Pre-game pick: Buffalo Sabres at 64%. Actual: Montreal Canadiens by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Montreal Canadiens
- Nick Suzuki C · #14
- Cole Caufield RW · #13
- Lane Hutson D · #48
- Juraj Slafkovsky LW · #20
Buffalo Sabres
- Tage Thompson C · #72
- Rasmus Dahlin D · #26
- Alex Tuch RW · #89
- Ryan McLeod C · #71
Game Leaders
Montreal CanadiensAlex Newhook2
Buffalo SabresZach Benson1
Injury Report
Buffalo Sabres
Noah OstlundOutJiri KulichInjured ReserveJustin DanforthInjured Reserve
Montreal Canadiens
Patrik LaineInjured Reserve
On The Ice
Lines and pairings sketched from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Top Performers
Final Notes
- Final frame: Montreal Canadiens beat Buffalo Sabres 5-1.
- Top line: Alex Newhook (Montreal Canadiens) — 2 G.
- Support line: Nick Suzuki (Montreal Canadiens) — 1 G.
- Support line: Alexandre Carrier (Montreal Canadiens) — 1 G, 4 PIM.
Highlights
- 🥅 GoalNick Suzuki Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (2)5–1
- 🥅 GoalAlexandre Carrier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none4–1
- 🥅 GoalZach Benson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Conor Timmins (1), Josh Doan (4)3–1
- 🥅 GoalAlex Newhook Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (2), Noah Dobson (1)3–0
- 🥅 GoalMike Matheson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (2)2–0
- 🥅 GoalAlex Newhook Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (5), Lane Hutson (5)1–0
Scoring by Period
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Team Stats
| Montreal Canadiens | Stat | Buffalo Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | PPG | 0 |
| 22 | PIM | 12 |
| 30 | FO Won | 23 |
| 18 | Hits | 44 |
| 7 | Takeaways | 4 |
Montreal Canadiens
Forwards#
| Player | BS | HT | TK | +/- | TOI | PPTOI | SHTOI | ESTOI | SHFT | G | YTDG | A | S | SM | SOG | FW | FL | FO% | GV | PN | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Josh Anderson RW | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:29 | 0:00 | 3:15 | 11:14 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| Zack Bolduc RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:02 | 2:41 | 0:00 | 9:21 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Caufield RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 6:00 | 0:00 | 11:06 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kirby Dach C | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:18 | 2:08 | 0:00 | 9:10 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Danault C | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14:33 | 0:03 | 3:17 | 11:13 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 66.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Demidov RW | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13:18 | 5:24 | 0:00 | 7:54 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Evans C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:32 | 1:35 | 5:58 | 8:59 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 63.6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Newhook C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:46 | 2:00 | 5:52 | 8:54 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 25.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Juraj Slafkovsky LW | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 6:03 | 0:00 | 11:53 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Suzuki C | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 | 6:08 | 0:08 | 13:47 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 56.3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alexandre Texier LW | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:21 | 0:50 | 0:00 | 8:31 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Veleno C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:07 | 0:00 | 10:25 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Defenses#
| Player | BS | HT | TK | +/- | TOI | PPTOI | SHTOI | ESTOI | SHFT | G | YTDG | A | S | SM | SOG | FW | FL | FO% | GV | PN | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 19:38 | 0:00 | 3:41 | 15:57 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Noah Dobson D | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 16:20 | 1:29 | 1:30 | 13:21 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20:56 | 1:10 | 4:35 | 15:11 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Lane Hutson D | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20:54 | 6:11 | 0:39 | 14:04 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Matheson D | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 26:44 | 0:59 | 8:09 | 17:36 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9:32 | 0:42 | 0:00 | 8:50 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Goalies#
| Player | GA | SA | SOS | SOSA | SV | SV% | ESSV | PPSV | SHSV | TOI | YTDG | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goalies | ||||||||||||
| Jakub Dobes G | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 28 | .966 | 18 | 10 | 0 | 60:00 | 0 | 0 |
Buffalo Sabres
Forwards#
| Player | BS | HT | TK | +/- | TOI | PPTOI | SHTOI | ESTOI | SHFT | G | YTDG | A | S | SM | SOG | FW | FL | FO% | GV | PN | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Zach Benson LW | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:25 | 4:23 | 1:16 | 13:46 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Josh Doan RW | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 4:15 | 0:00 | 12:13 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jordan Greenway LW | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:08 | 5:38 | 7:09 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Kozak C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 | 3:22 | 6:40 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 45.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Krebs C | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 12:25 | 1:16 | 0:00 | 11:09 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 75.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Beck Malenstyn LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:11 | 0:00 | 3:06 | 4:05 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan McLeod C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 17:17 | 4:37 | 1:32 | 11:08 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 26.7 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Norris C | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 17:39 | 4:38 | 0:42 | 12:19 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 41.7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Quinn RW | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 14:30 | 4:16 | 0:29 | 9:45 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tage Thompson C | 0 | 6 | 0 | -4 | 18:38 | 5:01 | 0:00 | 13:37 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Tuch RW | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 20:19 | 4:54 | 1:16 | 14:09 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Zucker LW | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 11:08 | 4:44 | 0:00 | 6:24 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Defenses#
| Player | BS | HT | TK | +/- | TOI | PPTOI | SHTOI | ESTOI | SHFT | G | YTDG | A | S | SM | SOG | FW | FL | FO% | GV | PN | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Bowen Byram D | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 21:27 | 4:53 | 2:00 | 14:34 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 22:17 | 4:23 | 0:21 | 17:33 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Owen Power D | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 20:18 | 0:08 | 1:51 | 18:19 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:00 | 4:00 | 15:47 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Logan Stanley D | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 10:27 | 0:00 | 2:04 | 8:23 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Conor Timmins D | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:00 | 7:11 | 10:57 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Keep following: Today’s scores·Player values·Morning Line
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 3rd · 20:00Game End
- 3rd · 20:00End of 3rd Period
- 3rd · 19:19Arber Xhekaj hit Conor Timmins
- 3rd · 18:36Arber Xhekaj Slap Shot Above Crossbar
- 3rd · 18:34Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Tyson Kozak
- 3rd · 18:34Zach Benson Cross-checking against Mike Matheson
- 3rd · 17:46Ryan McLeod Tip-In saved by Jakub Dobes
- 3rd · 17:32Josh Doan Slap Shot High and Wide Left
- 3rd · 17:18Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Jake Evans
- 3rd · 17:18Timeout – Home
- 3rd · 17:18Josh Anderson Misconduct
- 3rd · 17:18Josh Anderson Cross-checking against Jordan Greenway served by Ivan Demidov
Scoring Plays
- 3rd · 15:59Nick Suzuki Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (2)5–1
- 3rd · 3:54Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none4–1
- 2nd · 19:22Zach Benson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Conor Timmins (1), Josh Doan (4)3–1
- 2nd · 4:47Alex Newhook Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (2), Noah Dobson (1)3–0
- 1st · 4:27Mike Matheson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (2)2–0
- 1st · 1:36Alex Newhook Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (5), Lane Hutson (5)1–0