Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor7:00 PM ET🥅 Jakub Dobes vs Alex LyonHBO Max
Model pickBuffalo Sabres

Montreal Canadiens 2.6 · Buffalo Sabres 3.7

74%confidence
Montreal Canadiens52-38+0.3 net/g (SOS-adj +0.4) · expected win rate 55% · last 10: 50%
Buffalo Sabres55-34+0.6 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 60% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeKeyBank CenterHome adjustment: +1.7 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Buffalo Sabres: Buffalo Sabres’s scoring margin profile and Buffalo Sabres’s recent stretch. Goalie SV% over the last five starts is the variable my margin number can't fully price.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Buffalo Sabres is 70% over their recent sample; Montreal Canadiens is 50%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Goalie matchup. Jakub Dobes (Montreal Canadiens) vs. Alex Lyon (Buffalo Sabres).

Players to Watch

Buffalo Sabres

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Injury Report

Buffalo Sabres

Sam CarrickDay-To-DayRasmus DahlinDay-To-DayNoah OstlundOut

On The Ice

Lines and pairings sketched from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

Recent Form

Buffalo Sabres

  • W@ BOS3-1
  • W@ BOS6-1
  • Lvs BOS2-1 OT
  • W@ BOS4-1
  • Wvs MTL4-2

Montreal Canadiens

  • Lvs TB3-2
  • W@ TB3-2
  • Lvs TB1-0 OT
  • W@ TB2-1
  • L@ BUF4-2

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