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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:30 PM PT🥅 Carter Hart vs Lukas DostalHBO Max
Result readVegas Golden Knights

Vegas Golden Knights 6 · Anaheim Ducks 2

Final
Vegas Golden Knights45-47+0.2 net/g (SOS-adj +0.2) · expected win rate 54% · last 10: 60%
Anaheim Ducks49-43-0.2 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 48% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeHonda CenterHome adjustment: +1.7 rating pts

Vegas Golden Knights is the model’s call — Vegas Golden Knights on the margin numbers, Anaheim Ducks on the form numbers. Shot quality, special teams, and goaltending variance keep the ceiling capped.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 55%. Actual: Vegas Golden Knights by 4.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Game Leaders

Vegas Golden KnightsMitch Marner3
Anaheim DucksChris Kreider1

Injury Report

Anaheim Ducks

Ryan PoehlingDay-To-DayDrew HellesonOutRadko GudasOutPetr MrazekInjured Reserve
On The Ice

Lines and pairings sketched from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Top Performers

Final Notes

  • Final frame: Vegas Golden Knights beat Anaheim Ducks 6-2.
  • Top line: Mitch Marner (Vegas Golden Knights) — 3 G, 1 A.
  • Support line: Brett Howden (Vegas Golden Knights) — 1 G, 1 A, 2 PIM.
  • Support line: Shea Theodore (Vegas Golden Knights) — 1 G, 1 A.

Highlights

  1. 🥅 GoalBrett Howden Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none3rd · 18:046–2
  2. 🥅 GoalChris Kreider Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (7), Leo Carlsson (6)3rd · 15:095–2
  3. 🥅 GoalBeckett Sennecke Goal (3) Poke, assists: Alex Killorn (4), Mikael Granlund (5)3rd · 6:305–1
  4. 🥅 GoalMitch Marner Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (1), Ivan Barbashev (5)2nd · 17:565–0
  5. 🥅 GoalMitch Marner Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Shea Theodore (4), Brett Howden (2)2nd · 9:194–0
  6. 🥅 GoalMitch Marner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (2), Colton Sissons (3)1st · 19:553–0

Scoring by Period

TeamP1P2P3T
Vegas Golden Knights3216
Anaheim Ducks0022

Team Stats

Vegas Golden Knights Stat Anaheim Ducks
1PPG0
4PIM6
29FO Won22
23Hits53
8Takeaways4

Vegas Golden Knights

Forwards#

PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Forwards
Ivan Barbashev LW032116:311:180:0015:1320031230000.0100
Pavel Dorofeyev RW010-115:453:440:0012:0118041130000.0000
Nic Dowd C242-112:420:000:4811:54200201105935.7000
Jack Eichel C101120:593:410:5316:25250114003442.9012
Tomas Hertl C001012:233:390:008:44150001107187.5000
Brett Howden C010217:371:190:5715:2126161100000.0212
William Karlsson C100219:201:420:1917:192600121011761.1000
Keegan Kolesar RW020011:240:001:379:4716000100000.0000
Mitch Marner RW001423:073:521:5117:2427361520000.0100
Colton Sissons C340-116:522:290:3013:53220213003175.0000
Cole Smith RW140012:060:000:3811:2819020110000.0000
Mark Stone RW01014:240:280:273:297031000000.0200

Defenses#

PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Defense
Rasmus Andersson D000020:161:201:3917:1731000100000.0000
Dylan Coghlan D001016:170:000:0416:1319000110000.0200
Noah Hanifin D400018:530:001:4217:1129000000000.0100
Ben Hutton D110016:330:000:0416:2920000100000.0200
Brayden McNabb D320319:310:002:1717:1426110110000.0100
Shea Theodore D400321:201:332:1417:3330131200000.0200

Goalies#

PlayerGASASOSSOSASVSV%ESSVPPSVSHSVTOIYTDGPIM
Goalies
Carter Hart G2330031.939282160:0000

Anaheim Ducks

Forwards#

PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Forwards
Leo Carlsson C020018:342:080:1816:082004130021115.4000
Cutter Gauthier LW130-315:491:470:5913:032204023010100.0000
Mikael Granlund C120015:552:140:2613:15200312105455.6100
Jansen Harkins C160011:480:000:2511:2320010300000.0000
Ross Johnston LW050-111:280:000:0011:2818000100000.0000
Alex Killorn LW000-316:361:512:2512:2022031300000.0000
Chris Kreider LW060-117:092:090:1014:5021120300000.0000
Ryan Poehling C041-318:061:493:1013:07230400004930.8000
Beckett Sennecke RW000015:341:500:0013:4419130330000.0000
Troy Terry RW000018:342:100:0016:2420031210000.0000
Jeffrey Viel LW030-111:010:000:0310:582002011010100.0112
Tim Washe C040011:580:001:4110:17210001109564.3100

Defenses#

PlayerBSHTTK+/-TOIPPTOISHTOIESTOISHFTGYTDGASSMSOGFWFLFO%GVPNPIM
Defense
John Carlson D021-421:022:140:2718:2124000310000.0100
Drew Helleson D010012:180:001:0111:1720000000000.0000
Tyson Hinds D041014:350:001:3013:0522000010000.0000
Jackson LaCombe D081022:491:460:0021:0328010120000.0212
Pavel Mintyukov D300-120:200:003:3016:5026000210000.0100
Jacob Trouba D030123:090:023:3419:3331010300000.0100

Goalies#

PlayerGASASOSSOSASVSV%ESSVPPSVSHSVTOIYTDGPIM
Goalies
Lukas Dostal G38005.62531120:0000
Ville Husso G2190017.895143037:4902

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 3rd · 20:00Game End
  2. 3rd · 20:00End of 3rd Period
  3. 3rd · 19:50Giveaway by Jacob Trouba
  4. 3rd · 19:44Jansen Harkins hit Ivan Barbashev
  5. 3rd · 19:42Takeaway by Ivan Barbashev
  6. 3rd · 19:37Jeffrey Viel Wrist Shot Wide Right
  7. 3rd · 19:36Takeaway by Ryan Poehling
  8. 3rd · 19:07Ryan Poehling hit Ivan Barbashev
  9. 3rd · 19:01Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
  10. 3rd · 19:01Puck in Netting
  11. 3rd · 18:40Colton Sissons hit Tim Washe
  12. 3rd · 18:13Giveaway by Tim Washe

Scoring Plays

  1. 3rd · 18:04Brett Howden Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none6–2
  2. 3rd · 15:09Chris Kreider Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (7), Leo Carlsson (6)5–2
  3. 3rd · 6:30Beckett Sennecke Goal (3) Poke, assists: Alex Killorn (4), Mikael Granlund (5)5–1
  4. 2nd · 17:56Mitch Marner Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (1), Ivan Barbashev (5)5–0
  5. 2nd · 9:19Mitch Marner Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Shea Theodore (4), Brett Howden (2)4–0
  6. 1st · 19:55Mitch Marner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (2), Colton Sissons (3)3–0
  7. 1st · 12:13Brayden McNabb Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (7)2–0
  8. 1st · 1:06Shea Theodore Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (10), Mark Stone (4)1–0

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