Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor10:00 PM MTHBO Max
Model pickColorado Avalanche

Minnesota Wild 2.3 · Colorado Avalanche 4.0

74%confidence
Minnesota Wild50-40+0.4 net/g (SOS-adj +0.4) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 50%
Colorado Avalanche61-27+1.3 net/g (SOS-adj +1.2) · expected win rate 70% · last 10: 90%
Venue EdgeBall ArenaHome adjustment: +1.7 rating pts

Colorado Avalanche is the model’s call — Colorado Avalanche on the margin numbers, Colorado Avalanche on the form numbers. One power-play goal each side moves this projection by roughly half a goal.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Colorado Avalanche is 90% over their recent sample; Minnesota Wild is 50%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Colorado Avalanche projects 70% from points-for vs points-allowed; Minnesota Wild sits at 56%.

Players to Watch

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Injury Report

Colorado Avalanche

Josh MansonDay-To-DayJoel KivirantaOut

Minnesota Wild

Jonas BrodinDay-To-DayJoel Eriksson EkDay-To-DayZach BogosianDay-To-DayCharlie StramelOut

On The Ice

Lines and pairings sketched from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

Recent Form

Colorado Avalanche

  • Wvs LA2-1 OT
  • W@ LA4-2
  • W@ LA5-1
  • Wvs MIN9-6
  • Wvs MIN5-2

Minnesota Wild

  • Wvs DAL3-2 OT
  • W@ DAL4-2
  • Wvs DAL5-2
  • L@ COL9-6
  • L@ COL5-2

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