DET @ SD
Petco Park · San Diego, California
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:10 PM PT64°F · 3 mph wind · clear⚾ Tarik Skubal vs Nick PivettaMLB.TVPadres.TVTigers.TV
Result readDetroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers 8 · San Diego Padres 2
Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgePetco ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Detroit Tigers on the back of Detroit Tigers’s margin work and San Diego Padres’s last-ten momentum. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 60%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 6.
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 60%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 6.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Injury Report
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreLaureano homered to left (423 feet).8–2
- ScoreDingler homered to left center (403 feet), McGonigle scored.8–0
- 🏃 DoubleBogaerts doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.8–1
- ScoreTorkelson walked, Torres scored, Greene to second, Keith to third.1–0
- ScoreMeadows singled to left, Torkelson scored and McGonigle scored.6–0
- ScoreDingler singled to left, Torkelson scored, McGonigle to third.4–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 1 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Carpenter RF· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Gleyber Torres 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .250 | .400 | .250 |
| Colt Keith 3B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .400 | .400 | .400 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | .000 | .200 | .000 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 25 | .250 | .400 | .250 |
| Kevin McGonigle SS· | 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .800 | .800 | 1.200 |
| Dillon Dingler C· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .400 | .400 | 1.000 |
| Parker Meadows CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| Javier Baez SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .333 | .500 | .333 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal SP· | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 74-49 | 0.00 | 74 |
| Drew Anderson RP | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 36-17 | 6.75 | 36 |
| Tyler Holton RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11-5 | 0.00 | 11 |
| Will Vest RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7-6 | 0.00 | 7 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .500 | .500 | .750 |
| Manny Machado 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | .333 | .500 | .333 |
| Jackson Merrill CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Miguel Andujar 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .000 | .250 | .000 |
| Gavin Sheets 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Nick Castellanos RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Ramon Laureano LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .250 | .250 | 1.000 |
| Freddy Fermin C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .000 | .250 | .000 |
| Jake Cronenworth 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta SP· | 3.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 69-42 | 18.00 | 69 |
| Ron Marinaccio RP | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 43-25 | 9.00 | 43 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20-14 | 0.00 | 20 |
| David Morgan RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19-10 | 0.00 | 19 |
| Wandy Peralta RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15-10 | 0.00 | 15 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 3rd InningTorkelson singled to center.
- 1st InningBáez struck out swinging.
- 9th InningGreene grounded out to pitcher.
- 7th InningAndujar grounded out to shortstop.
Scoring Plays
- 7th InningLaureano homered to left (423 feet).8–2
- 5th InningDingler homered to left center (403 feet), McGonigle scored.8–0
- 6th InningBogaerts doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.8–1
- 1st InningTorkelson walked, Torres scored, Greene to second, Keith to third.1–0
- 3rd InningMeadows singled to left, Torkelson scored and McGonigle scored.6–0
- 1st InningDingler singled to left, Torkelson scored, McGonigle to third.4–0
- 1st InningMcGonigle doubled to right, Keith scored and Greene scored, Torkelson to third.3–0