PIT @ NYM
Citi Field · Queens, New York
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:15 PM ET53°F · 9 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Paul Skenes vs Freddy PeraltaPeacock
Result readNew York Mets
Pittsburgh Pirates 7 · New York Mets 11
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeCiti FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to New York Mets on the back of Pittsburgh Pirates’s margin work and Pittsburgh Pirates’s last-ten momentum. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 86%. Actual: New York Mets by 4.
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 86%. Actual: New York Mets by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
New York Mets
- Freddy Peralta SP · #51
- Clay Holmes SP · #35
- Tobias Myers RP · #32
- Bo Bichette 3B · #19
Injury Report
New York Mets
Nate LavenderDay-To-DayNick BurdiDay-To-DayGrae KessingerOutJose RojasDay-To-DayA.J. Minter15-Day-IL
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreAlvarez homered to left center (429 feet).5–11
- ScoreO'Hearn homered to left (358 feet).5–9
- ScoreRobert Jr. singled to left, Lindor scored, Soto to second.3–6
- ScorePolanco walked, Alvarez scored, Soto to second, Lindor to third.4–8
- ScoreSoto singled to left, Benge scored, Lindor to second, Alvarez to third.4–7
- ScoreBichette hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored.2–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
| New York Mets | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | 11 | 11 | 0 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz CF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 27 | .200 | .200 | .200 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .500 | .500 | 2.000 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| Marcell Ozuna DH· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Ryan O'Hearn RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .500 | .500 | 1.250 |
| Jared Triolo SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Nick Gonzales 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .500 | .500 | .750 |
| Henry Davis C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes SP· | 0.2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 37-26 | 67.50 | 37 |
| Yohan Ramirez RP | 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 37-22 | 0.00 | 37 |
| Mason Montgomery RP | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 42-23 | 13.50 | 42 |
| Isaac Mattson RP | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 36-21 | 27.00 | 36 |
| Justin Lawrence RP | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14-10 | 18.00 | 14 |
| Gregory Soto RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8-8 | 0.00 | 8 |
| Dennis Santana RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18-11 | 0.00 | 18 |
New York Mets
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 25 | .000 | .600 | .000 |
| Juan Soto LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .500 | .600 | .500 |
| Bo Bichette 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jorge Polanco 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | .333 | .600 | .333 |
| Luis Robert Jr. CF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25 | .500 | .600 | .500 |
| Brett Baty RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | .200 | .200 | .600 |
| Marcus Semien 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .400 | .400 | .600 |
| Carson Benge LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 23 | .333 | .600 | 1.333 |
| Francisco Alvarez C· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .500 | .600 | 1.250 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta SP· | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 80-53 | 7.20 | 80 |
| Tobias Myers RP | 3.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 39-22 | 3.00 | 39 |
| Luis Garcia RP | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20-16 | 18.00 | 20 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 5th InningBichette struck out swinging.
- 5th InningPitch 13 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 5th InningPitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul
- 5th InningPitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul
- 1st InningRobert Jr. walked, Polanco to second, Soto to third.
- 5th InningPitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul
Scoring Plays
- 6th InningAlvarez homered to left center (429 feet).5–11
- 6th InningO'Hearn homered to left (358 feet).5–9
- 4th InningRobert Jr. singled to left, Lindor scored, Soto to second.3–6
- 5th InningPolanco walked, Alvarez scored, Soto to second, Lindor to third.4–8
- 5th InningSoto singled to left, Benge scored, Lindor to second, Alvarez to third.4–7
- 1st InningBichette hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored.2–1
- 5th InningRobert Jr. reached on infield single to first, Lindor scored, Polanco to second, Soto to third.4–9
- 9th InningGonzales doubled to right, O'Hearn scored and Triolo scored.7–11
- 3rd InningLowe homered to right center (401 feet).3–5
- 1st InningBaty tripled to center, Soto scored, Polanco scored and Robert Jr. scored.2–4
- 6th InningBenge homered to right center (385 feet).5–10
- 5th InningDavis doubled to left, Gonzales scored.4–6
- 1st InningSemien doubled to left, Baty scored.2–5
- 1st InningLowe homered to right (337 feet), Cruz scored.2–0