COL @ MIA
loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor7:10 PM ET⚾ Kyle Freeland vs Sandy AlcantaraMLB.TVRockies.TVMarlins.TV
Result readMiami Marlins
Colorado Rockies 1 · Miami Marlins 2
Final
Colorado Rockies16-25-2-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 25%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Miami Marlins because Miami Marlins owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Miami Marlins has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Miami Marlins at 74%. Actual: Miami Marlins by 1.
Pre-game pick: Miami Marlins at 74%. Actual: Miami Marlins by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Colorado Rockies
- Michael Lorenzen SP · #24
- Tomoyuki Sugano SP · #11
- Jimmy Herget RP · #44
- Brennan Bernardino RP · #83
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Injury Report
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
Colorado Rockies
Jimmy HergetBereavementJared ThomasDay-To-DayMcCade Brown60-Day-ILJeff Criswell60-Day-ILRyan Feltner15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreSanoja singled to left, Caissie scored, Sanoja to second.0–2
- ScoreBeck reached on infield single to shortstop, Castro scored, Rumfield to second, Tovar to third.1–2
- 🏃 DoubleCaissie doubled to center, Edwards scored.0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 2 | 8 | 1 |
Colorado Rockies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Ryan Ritter 2B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Hunter Goodman C· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .500 | .500 | .500 |
| Willi Castro 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Ezequiel Tovar SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| TJ Rumfield 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | .333 | .500 | .333 |
| Brett Sullivan C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jordan Beck LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .333 | .500 | .333 |
| Brenton Doyle CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Edouard Julien 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Braxton Fulford C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Kyle Karros 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland SP· | 4.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 81-53 | 4.15 | 81 |
| Jimmy Herget RP | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20-12 | 0.00 | 20 |
| Brennan Bernardino RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0.00 | 2 |
| Juan Mejia RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22-14 | 0.00 | 22 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Slater LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Griffin Conine LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Agustin Ramirez C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .000 | .250 | .000 |
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .000 | .250 | .000 |
| Connor Norby 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | .667 | .750 | 1.000 |
| Heriberto Hernandez LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Graham Pauley 3B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| Owen Caissie RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
| Javier Sanoja 3B· | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara SP· | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 73-49 | 0.00 | 73 |
| Andrew Nardi RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11-8 | 0.00 | 11 |
| Anthony Bender RP | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-6 | 0.00 | 12 |
| Pete Fairbanks RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-11 | 0.00 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 3rd InningNorby hit by pitch.
- 3rd InningPitch 11 : Ball In Play
- 3rd InningMarsee stole third.
- 3rd InningMarsee stole third.
- 3rd InningPitch 10 : Ball 3
- 9th InningTovar struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 2nd InningSanoja singled to left, Caissie scored, Sanoja to second.0–2
- 4th InningBeck reached on infield single to shortstop, Castro scored, Rumfield to second, Tovar to third.1–2
- 2nd InningCaissie doubled to center, Edwards scored.0–1