BOS @ CIN
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameOutdoor4:10 PM ET44°F · 2 mph wind · clear⚾ Sonny Gray vs Brady SingerMLB.TVReds.TV
Result readCincinnati Reds
Boston Red Sox 5 · Cincinnati Reds 6
Final
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Venue EdgeGreat American Ball ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Cincinnati Reds because Boston Red Sox owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Boston Red Sox has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 87%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 1.
Pre-game pick: Boston Red Sox at 87%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Boston Red Sox
- Brayan Bello SP · #66
- Connelly Early SP · #71
- Trevor Story SS · #10
- Willson Contreras 1B · #40
Cincinnati Reds
- Andrew Abbott SP · #41
- Brady Singer SP · #51
- Elly De La Cruz SS · #44
- Matt McLain 2B · #9
Injury Report
Cincinnati Reds
Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
Boston Red Sox
Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreRafaela scored on Singer wild pitch, Anthony to second on wild pitch by Singer.3–4
- ScoreSuárez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, McLain scored, Stewart to second.0–2
- ScoreRafaela scored on Singer wild pitch, Anthony to second on wild pitch by Singer.3–4
- 🏃 DoubleMcLain doubled to center, Hayes scored.0–3
- ScoreAbreu homered to right (360 feet).5–5
- ScoreStory homered to left center (402 feet).1–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
Boston Red Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | .444 | .545 | .444 |
| Trevor Story SS· | 1-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 28 | .182 | .182 | .455 |
| Jarren Duran LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .250 | .400 | .250 |
| Willson Contreras 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 23 | .000 | .400 | .000 |
| Wilyer Abreu RF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .333 | .333 | .778 |
| Caleb Durbin 3B· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .000 | .111 | .000 |
| Marcelo Mayer 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | .429 | .429 | .714 |
| Carlos Narvaez C· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .500 | .500 | .500 |
| Masataka Yoshida LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .000 | 1.000 | .000 |
| Connor Wong C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray SP· | 4.0 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 80-51 | 6.75 | 80 |
| Greg Weissert RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 27-15 | 9.00 | 27 |
| Danny Coulombe RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14-8 | 0.00 | 14 |
| Ryan Watson RP | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 51-27 | 0.00 | 51 |
| Aroldis Chapman RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-6 | 0.00 | 9 |
| Garrett Whitlock RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6-5 | 0.00 | 6 |
| Justin Slaten RP | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11-7 | 0.00 | 11 |
Cincinnati Reds
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl CF· | 1-6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 26 | .100 | .100 | .100 |
| Matt McLain 2B· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 26 | .429 | .600 | .571 |
| Elly De La Cruz SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 30 | .250 | .400 | .625 |
| Sal Stewart 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .625 | .667 | 1.250 |
| Dane Myers CF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .500 | .500 | .500 |
| Eugenio Suarez 3B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .111 | .111 | .111 |
| Spencer Steer LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .000 | .222 | .000 |
| Will Benson RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .250 | .400 | .250 |
| Noelvi Marte RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jose Trevino C· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Nathaniel Lowe 1B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer SP· | 4.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 74-40 | 6.75 | 74 |
| Sam Moll RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15-8 | 0.00 | 15 |
| Pierce Johnson RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7-6 | 9.00 | 7 |
| Graham Ashcraft RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 19-12 | 5.40 | 19 |
| Tony Santillan RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 25-13 | 0.00 | 25 |
| Emilio Pagan RP | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22-16 | 6.75 | 22 |
| Connor Phillips RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 23-16 | 6.75 | 23 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 1st InningMcLain walked.
- 1st InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
- 11th InningAnthony struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 4th InningRafaela scored on Singer wild pitch, Anthony to second on wild pitch by Singer.3–4
- 1st InningSuárez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, McLain scored, Stewart to second.0–2
- 4th InningRafaela scored on Singer wild pitch, Anthony to second on wild pitch by Singer.3–4
- 2nd InningMcLain doubled to center, Hayes scored.0–3
- 9th InningAbreu homered to right (360 feet).5–5
- 3rd InningStory homered to left center (402 feet).1–3
- 11th InningMyers singled to left, Friedl scored, McLain to second.5–6
- 7th InningAbreu doubled to right, Duran scored.4–5
- 5th InningDe La Cruz homered to right (379 feet).3–5
- 1st InningStewart singled to right, Friedl scored, McLain to third.0–1
- 4th InningAnthony singled to right, Narváez scored, Rafaela to third.2–4
- 3rd InningStewart homered to center (399 feet).1–4