COL @ MIA
loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameIndoor4:10 PM ET⚾ Michael Lorenzen vs Eury PerezMLB.TVRockies.TVMarlins.TV
Result readMiami Marlins
Colorado Rockies 3 · Miami Marlins 4
Final
Colorado Rockies16-25-2-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 25%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Miami Marlins gets the model’s nod thanks to Miami Marlins’s margin advantage, with Miami Marlins’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Miami Marlins at 74%. Actual: Miami Marlins by 1.
Pre-game pick: Miami Marlins at 74%. Actual: Miami Marlins by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Colorado Rockies
- Michael Lorenzen SP · #24
- Tomoyuki Sugano SP · #11
- Jimmy Herget RP · #44
- Brennan Bernardino RP · #83
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Injury Report
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
Colorado Rockies
Jimmy HergetBereavementJared ThomasDay-To-DayMcCade Brown60-Day-ILJeff Criswell60-Day-ILRyan Feltner15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreCaissie singled to center, Lopez scored.3–4
- ScoreHicks hit sacrifice fly to right, Edwards scored, Ramírez to third.1–1
- ScoreHicks homered to right (384 feet), Ramírez scored.3–3
- ScoreRumfield homered to right center (423 feet).1–0
- ScoreTovar homered to left center (401 feet), Castro scored.3–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 4 | 10 | 1 |
Colorado Rockies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .143 | .143 | .143 |
| Hunter Goodman C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .375 | .375 | .375 |
| Willi Castro 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .125 | .125 | .125 |
| Ezequiel Tovar SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .250 | .250 | .625 |
| TJ Rumfield 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .286 | .375 | .714 |
| Troy Johnston RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Ryan Ritter 2B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Brenton Doyle CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | .000 | .125 | .000 |
| Kyle Karros 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .167 | .167 | .167 |
| Edouard Julien 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .200 | .200 | .400 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Lorenzen SP· | 4.1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 93-58 | 6.23 | 93 |
| Brennan Bernardino RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12-6 | 0.00 | 12 |
| Zach Agnos RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 30-18 | 0.00 | 30 |
| Jaden Hill RP | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23-15 | 5.40 | 23 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | .125 | .125 | .250 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| Agustin Ramirez C· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27 | .333 | .500 | .333 |
| Liam Hicks C· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .500 | .500 | 2.000 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .143 | .250 | .143 |
| Owen Caissie RF· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .500 | .500 | .750 |
| Griffin Conine LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .200 | .200 | .200 |
| Connor Norby 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .333 | .500 | .500 |
| Graham Pauley 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez SP· | 7.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 93-59 | 3.86 | 93 |
| Calvin Faucher RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-10 | 0.00 | 12 |
| Pete Fairbanks RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-6 | 0.00 | 9 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 1st InningRamírez grounded out to third.
- 7th InningEdwards grounded out to pitcher.
- 6th InningNorby grounded out to second.
- 1st InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningCaissie singled to center, Lopez scored.3–4
- 3rd InningHicks hit sacrifice fly to right, Edwards scored, Ramírez to third.1–1
- 5th InningHicks homered to right (384 feet), Ramírez scored.3–3
- 2nd InningRumfield homered to right center (423 feet).1–0
- 4th InningTovar homered to left center (401 feet), Castro scored.3–1