DET @ SD
Petco Park · San Diego, California
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameOutdoor5:40 PM PT63°F · 4 mph wind · overcast⚾ Jack Flaherty vs Randy VasquezMLB.TVPadres.TVTigers.TV
Result readSan Diego Padres
Detroit Tigers 0 · San Diego Padres 3
Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgePetco ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
San Diego Padres is the model’s call — Detroit Tigers on the margin numbers, San Diego Padres on the form numbers. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 52%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 3.
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 52%. Actual: San Diego Padres by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Injury Report
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreTatis Jr. singled to right, Fermin scored, Cronenworth to third.0–1
- ScoreCronenworth scored on fielding error by second baseman Torres, Tatis Jr. stole second.0–2
- ScoreCronenworth scored on fielding error by second baseman Torres, Tatis Jr. stole second.0–2
- ScoreMerrill grounded into fielder's choice to second, Cronenworth scored, Machado out at second, Tatis Jr. to third.0–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Carpenter RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .000 | .154 | .000 |
| Dillon Dingler C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .400 | .667 |
| Gleyber Torres 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | .222 | .500 | .222 |
| Colt Keith 3B· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | .444 | .545 | .556 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .083 | .214 | .083 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .182 | .308 | .182 |
| Kevin McGonigle SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | .417 | .462 | .583 |
| Matt Vierling CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Zach McKinstry 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| Jahmai Jones RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jake Rogers C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty SP· | 4.1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 89-49 | 4.15 | 89 |
| Brant Hurter RP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-9 | 0.00 | 12 |
| Connor Seabold RP | 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 50-36 | 0.00 | 50 |
| Will Vest RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4-3 | 0.00 | 4 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | .273 | .333 | .273 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .182 | .250 | .182 |
| Manny Machado 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 23 | .250 | .500 | .375 |
| Jackson Merrill CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .182 | .250 | .273 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .250 | .250 | .333 |
| Gavin Sheets 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Ramon Laureano LF· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .417 | .417 | .750 |
| Bryce Johnson RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Nick Castellanos RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .167 | .167 | .167 |
| Freddy Fermin C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .167 | .286 | .167 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Vasquez SP· | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 91-59 | 0.00 | 91 |
| Kyle Hart RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 23-14 | 0.00 | 23 |
| Mason Miller RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18-12 | 0.00 | 18 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 6th InningCronenworth lined out to shortstop.
- 6th InningPitch 11 : Ball In Play
- 6th InningLaureano stole third.
- 6th InningLaureano stole third.
- 6th InningPitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul
- 4th InningKeith walked.
Scoring Plays
- 3rd InningTatis Jr. singled to right, Fermin scored, Cronenworth to third.0–1
- 3rd InningCronenworth scored on fielding error by second baseman Torres, Tatis Jr. stole second.0–2
- 3rd InningCronenworth scored on fielding error by second baseman Torres, Tatis Jr. stole second.0–2
- 5th InningMerrill grounded into fielder's choice to second, Cronenworth scored, Machado out at second, Tatis Jr. to third.0–3