KC @ ATL
Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:15 PM ET⚾ Michael Wacha vs Reynaldo LopezMLB.TV
Result readAtlanta Braves
Kansas City Royals 2 · Atlanta Braves 6
Final
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeTruist ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Atlanta Braves on the back of Atlanta Braves’s margin work and Kansas City Royals’s last-ten momentum. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 79%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 4.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 79%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Kansas City Royals
- Cole Ragans SP · #55
- Kris Bubic SP · #50
- Luinder Avila RP · #58
- Bobby Witt Jr. SS · #7
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Injury Report
Atlanta Braves
Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
Kansas City Royals
Bailey Falter15-Day-ILCole Ragans15-Day-ILJames McArthur60-Day-ILAnthony SimonelliDay-To-DayJavier VazDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreSmith homered to right center (386 feet), White scored, Albies scored and Harris II scored.2–6
- ScorePasquantino grounded into fielder's choice to first, Garcia scored on fielding error by first baseman Olson.2–0
- ScoreYastrzemski singled to center, Baldwin scored, Mateo to third.2–1
- ScoreHarris II reached on infield single to pitcher, Mateo scored, Albies to second, White to third.2–2
- ScorePerez homered to left center (390 feet).1–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
Kansas City Royals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | .167 | .375 | .167 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .375 | .375 | .375 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .000 | .125 | .000 |
| Salvador Perez C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .250 | .250 | .625 |
| Carter Jensen C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .000 | .167 | .000 |
| Lane Thomas CF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .250 | .400 | .250 |
| Jonathan India 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .000 | .125 | .000 |
| Carlos Estevez RP | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jac Caglianone RF· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .500 | .500 | .750 |
| Tyler Tolbert LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Isaac Collins LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | .000 | .143 | .000 |
| Kyle Isbel CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha SP· | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 80-57 | 0.00 | 80 |
| Matt Strahm RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-12 | 0.00 | 13 |
| Lucas Erceg RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12-6 | 0.00 | 12 |
| Carlos Estevez RP | 0.1 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 27-12 | 162.00 | 27 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .125 | .222 | .125 |
| Drake Baldwin C· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .143 | .333 | .571 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | .375 | .375 | .500 |
| Jorge Mateo SS | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .571 | .625 | .571 |
| Mike Yastrzemski LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .500 | .500 | .500 |
| Eli White CF | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .286 | .375 | .714 |
| Michael Harris II CF· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .500 | .500 | .875 |
| Dominic Smith 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .250 | .250 | 1.000 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .167 | .286 | .333 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo Lopez SP· | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 77-47 | 1.50 | 77 |
| Dylan Lee RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18-11 | 0.00 | 18 |
| Joel Payamps RP | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15-8 | 0.00 | 15 |
| Aaron Bummer RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12-8 | 0.00 | 12 |
| Osvaldo Bido RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16-12 | 0.00 | 16 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningBaldwin walked.
- 9th InningPitch 7 : Ball 4
- 9th InningPitch 6 : Ball 3
- 7th InningAlbies flied out to center.
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningSmith homered to right center (386 feet), White scored, Albies scored and Harris II scored.2–6
- 8th InningPasquantino grounded into fielder's choice to first, Garcia scored on fielding error by first baseman Olson.2–0
- 9th InningYastrzemski singled to center, Baldwin scored, Mateo to third.2–1
- 9th InningHarris II reached on infield single to pitcher, Mateo scored, Albies to second, White to third.2–2
- 7th InningPerez homered to left center (390 feet).1–0