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InTheRafters.com

MIN @ BAL

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET59°F · 10 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Bailey Ober vs Shane BazMLB.TVTwins.TV
Result readBaltimore Orioles

Minnesota Twins 6 · Baltimore Orioles 8

Final
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeOriole Park at Camden YardsHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Baltimore Orioles because Minnesota Twins owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Minnesota Twins has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Minnesota Twins at 80%. Actual: Baltimore Orioles by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Minnesota Twins

Baltimore Orioles

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILDean Kremer15-Day-IL

Minnesota Twins

Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Minnesota Twins
AM Austin Martin LF · #16 BB Byron Buxton CF · #25 MW Matt Wallner RF · #38 RL Royce Lewis 3B · #23 BL Brooks Lee SS · #22 LK Luke Keaschall 2B · #15 JB Josh Bell 1B · #56 BO Bailey Ober P · #17 RJ Ryan Jeffers C · #27
Baltimore Orioles
TW Taylor Ward LF · #3 LT Leody Taveras CF · #30 CC Colton Cowser RF · #17 CM Coby Mayo 3B · #16 GH G. Henderson SS · #2 JJ J. Jackson 2B · #82 PA Pete Alonso 1B · #25 CB Chris Bassitt P · #40 SB Samuel Basallo C · #29

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreAlonso singled to right, Ward scored, Henderson to third.7th Inning5–6
  2. 🏃 DoubleBeavers doubled to right, Mayo scored and O'Neill scored.6th Inning4–5
  3. ScoreO'Neill homered to left (391 feet), Alonso scored and Basallo scored.4th Inning4–3
  4. ScoreLarnach reached on infield single to second, Wallner scored, Caratini to second, Bell to third.2nd Inning1–0
  5. ScoreGray singled to center, Bell scored, Outman to second, Caratini to third.8th Inning6–8
  6. ScoreMayo singled to left, Rutschman scored, O'Neill to second, Basallo to third.7th Inning5–8

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Minnesota Twins0400001106120
Baltimore Orioles00030230—8120

Minnesota Twins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Kody Clemens 1B·0-4400001221.111.200.111
Byron Buxton CF·1-4401001225.333.385.583
Luke Keaschall 2B·1-4401001017.182.231.182
Matt Wallner RF·1-5511000328.100.308.100
Josh Bell 1B·2-3322001120.222.385.444
Victor Caratini C·2-5512000019.375.444.375
Brooks Lee SS0-000000000.000.000.000
Trevor Larnach LF·2-221210009.400.500.600
Austin Martin LF0-110000015.250.250.250
James Outman CF0-110000107.000.333.000
Royce Lewis 3B·1-4411110217.222.364.889
Tristan Gray 3B·2-4402300113.500.500.750

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Bailey Ober SP·4.043311156-376.7556
Mick Abel SP3.185544081-5213.5081
Anthony Banda RP0.20000003-20.003

Baltimore Orioles

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Taylor Ward LF·1-4411001120.091.286.091
Gunnar Henderson SS·1-4411001119.083.214.083
Pete Alonso 1B·2-3312101015.273.385.273
Ryan Mountcastle 1B·0-330000009.250.250.250
Adley Rutschman C1-111110001.429.556.714
Samuel Basallo C·1-3311001110.200.333.200
Tyler O'Neill RF·1-3321311019.286.444.714
Coby Mayo 3B·2-4412100017.222.364.333
Dylan Beavers RF·1-4401200015.167.167.333
Leody Taveras CF0-000000000.000.000.000
Jeremiah Jackson 2B·1-3301000213.429.429.429
Blaze Alexander 3B1-110100002.500.500.500

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Shane Baz SP·5.174404078-536.7578
Grant Wolfram RP1.010002019-120.0019
Yaramil Hiraldo RP0.111131120-813.5020
Rico Garcia RP0.10000108-50.008
Tyler Wells RP0.221122027-1610.8027
Yennier Cano RP0.10000109-60.009
Ryan Helsley RP1.010001020-110.0020

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningBell walked.
  2. 8th InningWard walked.
  3. 8th InningBuxton struck out swinging.
  4. 8th InningPitch 7 : Ball 4
  5. 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
  6. 8th InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Swinging
  7. 8th InningPitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
  8. 7th InningWallner struck out looking.

Scoring Plays

  1. 7th InningAlonso singled to right, Ward scored, Henderson to third.5–6
  2. 6th InningBeavers doubled to right, Mayo scored and O'Neill scored.4–5
  3. 4th InningO'Neill homered to left (391 feet), Alonso scored and Basallo scored.4–3
  4. 2nd InningLarnach reached on infield single to second, Wallner scored, Caratini to second, Bell to third.1–0
  5. 8th InningGray singled to center, Bell scored, Outman to second, Caratini to third.6–8
  6. 7th InningMayo singled to left, Rutschman scored, O'Neill to second, Basallo to third.5–8
  7. 7th InningRutschman doubled to center, Henderson scored, Alonso to third.5–7
  8. 7th InningLewis homered to left (377 feet).5–5
  9. 2nd InningGray doubled to center, Bell scored, Larnach scored and Caratini scored, Gray out stretching at third.4–0

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