NYM @ STL
Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:45 PM CT70°F · 13 mph wind · overcast⚾ Clay Holmes vs Kyle LeahyMLB.TVCardinals.TV
Result readNew York Mets
New York Mets 4 · St. Louis Cardinals 2
Final
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeBusch StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans New York Mets because St. Louis Cardinals owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and St. Louis Cardinals has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 63%. Actual: New York Mets by 2.
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 63%. Actual: New York Mets by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
New York Mets
- Freddy Peralta SP · #51
- Clay Holmes SP · #35
- Tobias Myers RP · #32
- Bo Bichette 3B · #19
St. Louis Cardinals
- Matthew Liberatore SP · #32
- Andre Pallante SP · #53
- Ivan Herrera C · #48
- JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26
Injury Report
St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
New York Mets
Nate LavenderDay-To-DayNick BurdiDay-To-DayGrae KessingerOutJose RojasDay-To-DayA.J. Minter15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreBurleson singled to right, Wetherholt scored.1–1
- 🏃 DoubleYoung doubled to right, Baty scored.3–1
- ScoreSoto walked, Young scored, Lindor to second, Alvarez to third.4–1
- ScoreGorman homered to right center (419 feet).4–2
- ScoreBichette singled to right, Benge scored, Soto to third.2–1
- ScoreBichette grounded out to second, Lindor scored.1–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
New York Mets
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .214 | .450 | .500 |
| Juan Soto LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | .353 | .450 | .412 |
| Bo Bichette 3B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .105 | .100 | .105 |
| Jorge Polanco 1B· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .200 | .400 | .267 |
| Brett Baty RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .278 | .278 | .389 |
| Jared Young 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .200 | .200 | .400 |
| Luis Robert Jr. CF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .417 | .533 | .667 |
| Marcus Semien 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | .143 | .235 | .214 |
| Carson Benge LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .214 | .313 | .429 |
| Francisco Alvarez C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .333 | .500 | .778 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Holmes SP· | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 90-57 | 3.18 | 90 |
| Tobias Myers RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14-10 | 2.08 | 14 |
| Brooks Raley RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17-11 | 0.00 | 17 |
| Devin Williams RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-10 | 0.00 | 12 |
St. Louis Cardinals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .250 | .316 | .438 |
| Ivan Herrera C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | .118 | .111 | .176 |
| Alec Burleson 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .400 | .444 | .667 |
| Masyn Winn SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .176 | .222 | .294 |
| Nolan Gorman 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .286 | .286 | .714 |
| Jordan Walker RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .385 | .500 | .769 |
| Nathan Church LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | .250 | .250 | .250 |
| Pedro Pages C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .273 | .273 | .545 |
| Victor Scott II CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | .385 | .385 | .385 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy SP· | 5.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 79-51 | 7.20 | 79 |
| Matt Svanson RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 36-20 | 18.00 | 36 |
| George Soriano RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21-16 | 0.00 | 21 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 1st InningBurleson singled to right, Wetherholt scored.1–1
- 7th InningSemien struck out swinging.
- 1st InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
- 7th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
Scoring Plays
- 1st InningBurleson singled to right, Wetherholt scored.1–1
- 6th InningYoung doubled to right, Baty scored.3–1
- 6th InningSoto walked, Young scored, Lindor to second, Alvarez to third.4–1
- 6th InningGorman homered to right center (419 feet).4–2
- 5th InningBichette singled to right, Benge scored, Soto to third.2–1
- 1st InningBichette grounded out to second, Lindor scored.1–0