SF @ SD
Petco Park · San Diego, California
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM PT63°F · 2 mph wind · overcast⚾ Landen Roupp vs Walker BuehlerMLB.TVPadres.TV
Result readSan Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants 3 · San Diego Padres 2
Final
San Francisco Giants16-24-1-1.2 net/g (SOS-adj -1.2) · expected win rate 36% · last 10: 30%
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgePetco ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans San Francisco Giants because San Diego Padres owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and San Diego Padres has the recent-form edge. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 78%. Actual: San Francisco Giants by 1.
Pre-game pick: San Diego Padres at 78%. Actual: San Francisco Giants by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
San Francisco Giants
- Logan Webb SP · #62
- Robbie Ray SP · #38
- Jung Hoo Lee RF · #51
- Matt Chapman 3B · #26
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Injury Report
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
San Francisco Giants
Daniel Susac10-Day-ILHarrison Bader10-Day-ILErik Miller15-Day-ILJason Foley60-Day-ILLogan Webb15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreMerrill homered to right (387 feet), Cronenworth scored.3–2
- ScoreSchmitt singled to left, Lee scored, Bailey to third.3–0
- ScoreBader homered to left center (408 feet).1–0
- ScoreBailey singled to left, Chapman scored, Lee to second.2–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
San Francisco Giants
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .133 | .133 | .133 |
| Rafael Devers 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12 | .214 | .313 | .286 |
| Heliot Ramos LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .214 | .267 | .286 |
| Luis Arraez 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | .200 | .250 | .200 |
| Matt Chapman 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .154 | .313 | .154 |
| Jung Hoo Lee RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .077 | .200 | .154 |
| Harrison Bader CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .143 | .143 | .357 |
| Patrick Bailey C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .077 | .143 | .077 |
| Casey Schmitt 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .167 | .286 | .250 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landen Roupp SP· | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 88-54 | 0.00 | 88 |
| Matt Gage RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15-10 | 0.00 | 15 |
| Keaton Winn RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13-9 | 0.00 | 13 |
| Ryan Walker RP | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22-11 | 7.71 | 22 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .214 | .313 | .214 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .214 | .313 | .214 |
| Manny Machado 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .167 | .375 | .250 |
| Jackson Merrill CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | .200 | .250 | .467 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .250 | .250 | .313 |
| Gavin Sheets 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Miguel Andujar 3B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .125 | .222 | .125 |
| Ramon Laureano LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | .357 | .400 | .643 |
| Nick Castellanos RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | .111 | .111 | .111 |
| Luis Campusano C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Bryce Johnson RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Freddy Fermin C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .286 | .167 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler SP· | 4.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 72-43 | 6.75 | 72 |
| Wandy Peralta RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14-8 | 0.00 | 14 |
| David Morgan RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 20-16 | 0.00 | 20 |
| Ron Marinaccio RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 29-18 | 4.50 | 29 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningArraez grounded out to second.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
- 8th InningPitch 7 : Ball 3
- 9th InningMerrill homered to right (387 feet), Cronenworth scored.3–2
- 8th InningJohnson struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningMerrill homered to right (387 feet), Cronenworth scored.3–2
- 4th InningSchmitt singled to left, Lee scored, Bailey to third.3–0
- 3rd InningBader homered to left center (408 feet).1–0
- 4th InningBailey singled to left, Chapman scored, Lee to second.2–0