DET @ ARI
Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM PT⚾ Casey Mize vs Brandon PfaadtMLB.TVDBACKS.TVTigers.TV
Result readArizona Diamondbacks
Detroit Tigers 5 · Arizona Diamondbacks 7
Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeChase FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Arizona Diamondbacks is the model’s call — Detroit Tigers on the margin numbers, Detroit Tigers on the form numbers. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 72%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 2.
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 72%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
Injury Report
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreMoreno grounded into fielder's choice to third, Marte scored, Perdomo to second, Carroll out at third.5–4
- ScoreFernandez homered to left center (409 feet), Perdomo scored and Thomas scored.5–7
- 🏃 DoubleCarroll doubled to center, McCann scored and Lawlar scored, Marte to third.5–3
- 🏃 DoubleRogers doubled to center, Meadows scored.1–0
- ScoreMcGonigle reached on infield single to first, Rogers scored, Keith to second.2–0
- ScoreFernandez homered to left (408 feet).5–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — | 7 | 8 | 0 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt Keith 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .389 | .450 | .556 |
| Matt Vierling CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Kevin McGonigle SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .333 | .429 | .444 |
| Gleyber Torres 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .188 | .435 | .188 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .190 | .261 | .238 |
| Kerry Carpenter RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .105 | .227 | .105 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .150 | .227 | .200 |
| Zach McKinstry 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .125 | .125 | .125 |
| Parker Meadows CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .250 | .308 | .333 |
| Jake Rogers C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .167 | .167 | .333 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize SP· | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 93-60 | 1.50 | 93 |
| Drew Anderson RP | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16-13 | 11.57 | 16 |
| Will Vest RP | 0.2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27-15 | 13.50 | 27 |
| Kenley Jansen RP | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8-5 | 6.75 | 8 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .211 | .318 | .368 |
| Corbin Carroll RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .278 | .333 | .611 |
| Geraldo Perdomo SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .263 | .333 | .474 |
| Gabriel Moreno C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .313 | .353 | .438 |
| Alek Thomas CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .158 | .200 | .316 |
| Jose Fernandez 1B· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .750 | .750 | 2.250 |
| Carlos Santana 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | .063 | .167 | .125 |
| James McCann C· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | .200 | .333 | .400 |
| Jordan Lawlar LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .308 | .357 | .385 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt RP· | 6.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 85-57 | 7.50 | 85 |
| Andrew Hoffmann RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 32-19 | 0.00 | 32 |
| Paul Sewald RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13-10 | 0.00 | 13 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 5th InningLawlar grounded out to first.
- 8th InningMoreno grounded into fielder's choice to third, Marte scored, Perdomo to second, Carroll out at third.5–4
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningMoreno grounded into fielder's choice to third, Marte scored, Perdomo to second, Carroll out at third.5–4
- 8th InningFernandez homered to left center (409 feet), Perdomo scored and Thomas scored.5–7
- 8th InningCarroll doubled to center, McCann scored and Lawlar scored, Marte to third.5–3
- 3rd InningRogers doubled to center, Meadows scored.1–0
- 3rd InningMcGonigle reached on infield single to first, Rogers scored, Keith to second.2–0
- 4th InningFernandez homered to left (408 feet).5–1
- 3rd InningCarpenter singled to right, Greene scored.5–0
- 3rd InningGreene doubled to right, McGonigle scored and Keith scored.4–0