MIN @ KC
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Joe Ryan vs Noah CameronMLB.TVTwins.TVRoyals.TV
Result readKansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins 9 · Kansas City Royals 13
Final
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeKauffman StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Kansas City Royals gets the model’s nod thanks to Minnesota Twins’s margin advantage, with Kansas City Royals’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Kansas City Royals at 60%. Actual: Kansas City Royals by 4.
Pre-game pick: Kansas City Royals at 60%. Actual: Kansas City Royals by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Minnesota Twins
- Bailey Ober SP · #17
- Joe Ryan SP · #41
- Josh Bell 1B · #56
- Luke Keaschall 2B · #15
Kansas City Royals
- Cole Ragans SP · #55
- Kris Bubic SP · #50
- Luinder Avila RP · #58
- Bobby Witt Jr. SS · #7
Injury Report
Kansas City Royals
Bailey Falter15-Day-ILCole Ragans15-Day-ILJames McArthur60-Day-ILAnthony SimonelliDay-To-DayJavier VazDay-To-Day
Minnesota Twins
Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreGarcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Caglianone scored, Collins to third.0–5
- ScoreGarcia singled to left, Isbel scored.0–3
- ScoreMartin hit by pitch, Bell scored, Gray to second, Caratini to third.6–13
- ScoreIsbel homered to right (360 feet).4–13
- ScoreIndia homered to left (397 feet), Garcia scored, Pasquantino scored and Perez scored.1–12
- ScoreWitt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Collins scored, Isbel to third.1–7
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 1 |
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | — | 13 | 15 | 1 |
Minnesota Twins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Martin LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 38 | .375 | .615 | .375 |
| Byron Buxton CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .200 | .238 | .350 |
| James Outman CF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .000 | .200 | .000 |
| Luke Keaschall 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .158 | .227 | .211 |
| Matt Wallner RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | .158 | .273 | .316 |
| Ryan Jeffers C· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 27 | .214 | .353 | .286 |
| Josh Bell 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 22 | .200 | .381 | .533 |
| Victor Caratini C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .267 | .353 | .267 |
| Royce Lewis 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .200 | .294 | .667 |
| Tristan Gray 3B | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .600 | .667 | .800 |
| Brooks Lee SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .154 | .214 | .154 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan SP· | 4.0 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 77-49 | 4.82 | 77 |
| Cody Laweryson RP | 1.1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 36-19 | 20.25 | 36 |
| Zak Kent RP | 1.2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 47-25 | 5.40 | 47 |
| Anthony Banda RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-8 | 0.00 | 12 |
Kansas City Royals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia 3B· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .313 | .429 | .375 |
| Nick Loftin 3B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .250 | .400 | .500 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .278 | .300 | .278 |
| Tyler Tolbert LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 26 | .176 | .333 | .235 |
| Salvador Perez C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .200 | .238 | .400 |
| Carter Jensen C· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28 | .125 | .167 | .313 |
| Jonathan India 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .200 | .250 | .400 |
| Jac Caglianone RF· | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .357 | .438 | .500 |
| Isaac Collins LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .167 | .333 | .500 |
| Kyle Isbel CF· | 4-4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .571 | .571 | 1.000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cameron SP· | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 86-53 | 1.80 | 86 |
| Nick Mears RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18-11 | 0.00 | 18 |
| Daniel Lynch IV RP | 1.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 37-19 | 4.50 | 37 |
| Alex Lange RP | 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 34-17 | 13.50 | 34 |
| Steven Cruz RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7-5 | 0.00 | 7 |
| Bailey Falter RP | 0.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20-8 | 13.50 | 20 |
| Lucas Erceg RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7-5 | 0.00 | 7 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningGray walked.
- 8th InningPitch 10 : Ball 4
- 8th InningPitch 9 : Ball 3
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
- 8th InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
- 1st InningPasquantino struck out looking.
Scoring Plays
- 4th InningGarcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Caglianone scored, Collins to third.0–5
- 2nd InningGarcia singled to left, Isbel scored.0–3
- 8th InningMartin hit by pitch, Bell scored, Gray to second, Caratini to third.6–13
- 7th InningIsbel homered to right (360 feet).4–13
- 6th InningIndia homered to left (397 feet), Garcia scored, Pasquantino scored and Perez scored.1–12
- 6th InningWitt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Collins scored, Isbel to third.1–7
- 2nd InningIsbel singled to left, Collins scored.0–2
- 7th InningMartin walked, Bell scored, Lee to second, Lewis to third.2–12
- 6th InningGarcia walked, Caglianone scored, Isbel to second, Collins to third.1–6
- 3rd InningIndia reached on infield single to third, Pasquantino scored, India out stretching at second.0–4
- 8th InningCaratini singled to center, Jeffers scored, Bell to second.5–13
- 6th InningPasquantino grounded into fielder's choice to first, Isbel scored on error, Garcia safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Caratini.1–8
- 9th InningBell homered to left (383 feet), Wallner scored and Jeffers scored.9–13
- 7th InningKeaschall doubled to left, Lewis scored and Lee scored, Martin to third.4–12
- 5th InningLee singled to center, Lewis scored.1–5
- 2nd InningCollins doubled to right, Caglianone scored.0–1