PIT @ CIN
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor12:40 PM ET67°F · 7 mph wind · light rain⚾ Paul Skenes vs Andrew AbbottMLB.TVReds.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 8 · Cincinnati Reds 3
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Venue EdgeGreat American Ball ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Pittsburgh Pirates because Pittsburgh Pirates owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Pittsburgh Pirates has the recent-form edge. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 95%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 5.
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 95%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Cincinnati Reds
- Andrew Abbott SP · #41
- Brady Singer SP · #51
- Elly De La Cruz SS · #44
- Matt McLain 2B · #9
Injury Report
Cincinnati Reds
Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreGonzales singled to left, Horwitz scored and Davis scored, Gonzales to second.6–3
- ScoreHorwitz walked, Cruz scored, Triolo to second, Yorke to third.4–1
- ScoreReynolds homered to right (413 feet), Gonzales scored.8–3
- ScoreSuárez homered to left (410 feet), Stewart scored.4–3
- ScoreCruz homered to right (407 feet), Reynolds scored and Ozuna scored.3–0
- 🏃 DoubleLowe doubled to center, De La Cruz scored.3–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Mangum LF· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .167 | .211 | .222 |
| Nick Gonzales 3B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | .333 | .357 | .407 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .222 | .250 | .444 |
| Marcell Ozuna DH· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 28 | .050 | .174 | .050 |
| Oneil Cruz CF· | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .304 | .333 | .696 |
| Nick Yorke 3B· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17 | .200 | .400 | .200 |
| Jared Triolo SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .150 | .261 | .200 |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | .133 | .188 | .133 |
| Henry Davis C· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .143 | .294 | .214 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes SP· | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 77-51 | 9.53 | 77 |
| Mason Montgomery RP | 0.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15-8 | 12.00 | 15 |
| Isaac Mattson RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22-16 | 4.50 | 22 |
| Justin Lawrence RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-9 | 4.91 | 12 |
| Gregory Soto RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13-10 | 0.00 | 13 |
Cincinnati Reds
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl CF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21 | .091 | .259 | .091 |
| Matt McLain 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | .190 | .370 | .238 |
| Elly De La Cruz SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .208 | .296 | .458 |
| Sal Stewart 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .474 | .615 | .947 |
| Nathaniel Lowe 1B· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
| Eugenio Suarez 3B | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .217 | .250 | .478 |
| Spencer Steer LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | .059 | .150 | .059 |
| Will Benson RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .182 | .250 | .364 |
| Dane Myers CF | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .444 | .444 | .444 |
| Tyler Stephenson C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .077 | .143 | .077 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .067 | .176 | .067 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott SP· | 5.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 88-55 | 3.09 | 88 |
| Connor Phillips RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13-4 | 4.50 | 13 |
| Graham Ashcraft RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21-17 | 2.25 | 21 |
| Tony Santillan RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11-9 | 0.00 | 11 |
| Emilio Pagan RP | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33-19 | 13.50 | 33 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningGonzales doubled to right.
- 7th InningMangum struck out swinging.
- 7th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
- 7th InningPitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningGonzales singled to left, Horwitz scored and Davis scored, Gonzales to second.6–3
- 6th InningHorwitz walked, Cruz scored, Triolo to second, Yorke to third.4–1
- 9th InningReynolds homered to right (413 feet), Gonzales scored.8–3
- 6th InningSuárez homered to left (410 feet), Stewart scored.4–3
- 1st InningCruz homered to right (407 feet), Reynolds scored and Ozuna scored.3–0
- 4th InningLowe doubled to center, De La Cruz scored.3–1