TEX @ BAL
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor12:35 PM ET87°F · 6 mph wind · clear⚾ Nathan Eovaldi vs Trevor RogersMLB.TV
Result readBaltimore Orioles
Texas Rangers 3 · Baltimore Orioles 8
Final
Texas Rangers19-21-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 50%
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeOriole Park at Camden YardsHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Baltimore Orioles gets the model’s nod thanks to Texas Rangers’s margin advantage, with Texas Rangers’s recent run providing the second tip. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Texas Rangers at 86%. Actual: Baltimore Orioles by 5.
Pre-game pick: Texas Rangers at 86%. Actual: Baltimore Orioles by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Texas Rangers
- MacKenzie Gore SP · #1
- Nathan Eovaldi SP · #17
- Jacob Latz RP · #67
- Brandon Nimmo RF · #24
Baltimore Orioles
- Chris Bassitt SP · #40
- Kyle Bradish SP · #38
- Gunnar Henderson SS · #2
- Pete Alonso 1B · #25
Injury Report
Baltimore Orioles
Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day
Texas Rangers
Luis Curvelo15-Day-ILChris Martin15-Day-ILWyatt Langford10-Day-ILJosh Smith10-Day-ILCody Freeman10-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreJung singled to right, McCutchen scored, Jansen to second.1–4
- ScoreDuran singled to center, Jansen scored, Duran to second, Jung to third.2–4
- ScoreJackson singled to right, Mayo scored, Taveras to second, Beavers to third.2–6
- ScoreSeager homered to right center (422 feet).3–8
- ScoreBeavers homered to right center (401 feet).2–8
- ScoreWard hit sacrifice fly to right, Beavers scored, Taveras to third.2–7
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 8 | 12 | 0 |
Texas Rangers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .400 | .464 | .560 |
| Wyatt Langford LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .143 | .143 | .214 |
| Corey Seager SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .318 | .429 | .727 |
| Jake Burger 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .346 | .370 | .615 |
| Andrew McCutchen LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .429 | .467 | .786 |
| Danny Jansen C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .294 | .294 | .529 |
| Josh Jung 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .095 | .095 | .095 |
| Ezequiel Duran LF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .273 | .273 | .636 |
| Josh Smith 2B | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .176 | .300 | .176 |
| Sam Haggerty LF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Evan Carter CF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .250 | .368 | .375 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi SP· | 4.0 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 88-55 | 11.42 | 88 |
| Tyler Alexander RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25-14 | 2.25 | 25 |
| Carter Baumler RP | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 36-23 | 3.86 | 36 |
| Jacob Latz RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14-9 | 0.00 | 14 |
Baltimore Orioles
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .333 | .393 | .417 |
| Gunnar Henderson SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | .160 | .250 | .320 |
| Pete Alonso 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .304 | .385 | .435 |
| Samuel Basallo C· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .211 | .286 | .368 |
| Coby Mayo 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | .118 | .250 | .176 |
| Dylan Beavers RF· | 3-5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | .286 | .286 | .571 |
| Colton Cowser RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .333 | .400 | .417 |
| Leody Taveras CF· | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16 | .667 | .800 | 1.000 |
| Jeremiah Jackson 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .267 | .250 | .267 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers SP· | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 91-58 | 1.38 | 91 |
| Albert Suarez RP | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 42-27 | 3.00 | 42 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningBeavers flied out to center.
- 8th InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
- 8th InningPitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul
- 7th InningTaveras walked.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
- 7th InningPitch 5 : Ball 4
Scoring Plays
- 4th InningJung singled to right, McCutchen scored, Jansen to second.1–4
- 4th InningDuran singled to center, Jansen scored, Duran to second, Jung to third.2–4
- 5th InningJackson singled to right, Mayo scored, Taveras to second, Beavers to third.2–6
- 8th InningSeager homered to right center (422 feet).3–8
- 6th InningBeavers homered to right center (401 feet).2–8
- 5th InningWard hit sacrifice fly to right, Beavers scored, Taveras to third.2–7
- 5th InningBasallo homered to center (437 feet).2–5
- 3rd InningTaveras doubled to right, Alonso scored and Beavers scored, Cowser to third.0–4
- 2nd InningWard doubled to right, Taveras scored.0–2
- 2nd InningJackson hit sacrifice fly to center, Cowser scored.0–1