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InTheRafters.com

ATL @ ARI

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:40 PM PT⚾ Reynaldo Lopez vs Ryne NelsonESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVBravesVisionDBACKS.TV
Result readAtlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves 17 · Arizona Diamondbacks 2

Final
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeChase FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Atlanta Braves gets the model’s nod thanks to Atlanta Braves’s margin advantage, with Atlanta Braves’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 94%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 15.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Atlanta Braves

Arizona Diamondbacks

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL

Atlanta Braves

Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Atlanta Braves
MY M. Yastrzemski LF · #18 MI M. Harris II CF · #23 RA R. Acuna Jr. RF · #13 AR Austin Riley 3B · #27 MD Mauricio Dubon SS · #14 OA Ozzie Albies 2B · #1 MO Matt Olson 1B · #28 BE Bryce Elder P · #55 DB Drake Baldwin C · #30
Arizona Diamondbacks
JB Jorge Barrosa LF · #1 AT Alek Thomas CF · #5 CC Corbin Carroll RF · #7 NA Nolan Arenado 3B · #28 GP G. Perdomo SS · #2 KM Ketel Marte 2B · #4 JF Jose Fernandez 1B · #11 ZG Zac Gallen P · #23 AC A. Castillo C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreDubón homered to left center (413 feet).6th Inning11–1
  2. 🏃 DoubleRiley doubled to left, Baldwin scored and Olson scored.5th Inning7–1
  3. ScoreOlson homered to center (430 feet).1st Inning1–0
  4. ScoreAcuña Jr. walked, Albies scored, Dubón to second, Smith to third.5th Inning3–1
  5. 🏃 DoubleVargas doubled to right, Moreno scored.9th Inning17–2
  6. ScoreMateo homered to left (353 feet), Harris II scored.9th Inning14–1

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Atlanta Braves10108200517160
Arizona Diamondbacks001000001261

Atlanta Braves

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF·1-4401101120.167.323.208
Eli White CF0-110000001.167.286.167
Drake Baldwin C·1-6631100124.286.375.643
Matt Olson 1B·3-5533311122.321.367.571
Austin Riley 3B·1-3311201118.250.357.292
Kyle Farmer 3B1-110110003.500.333.500
Mike Yastrzemski LF·1-4411202023.286.375.476
Ozzie Albies 2B·2-5522101224.296.367.407
Michael Harris II CF·2-6612200022.241.241.379
Dominic Smith 1B·1-3321111013.375.444.750
Jorge Mateo SS1-111121003.250.2501.000
Mauricio Dubon SS·2-4432111024.429.478.619

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Reynaldo Lopez SP·5.041113179-521.6479
Tyler Kinley RP1.000001010-60.0010
Osvaldo Bido RP3.021111042-262.2542

Arizona Diamondbacks

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte 2B·0-4400000018.154.267.269
Corbin Carroll RF·0-3300000216.292.357.667
James McCann C0-110000004.167.286.333
Geraldo Perdomo SS·1-1101001010.250.333.458
Jose Fernandez 1B0-220000007.333.3331.000
Gabriel Moreno C·0-3310001015.227.292.318
Alek Thomas CF·0-4400000112.130.167.261
Nolan Arenado 3B·1-220100006.190.190.190
Ildemaro Vargas 1B2-220210005.556.5561.000
Carlos Santana 1B·0-440000018.050.136.100
Jordan Lawlar LF·1-2211110113.333.400.556
Tim Tawa LF0-110000004.286.286.429
Jorge Barrosa LF·1-3301000013.333.333.667

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Ryne Nelson SP·4.237233280-475.7980
Kevin Ginkel RP0.133310022-1115.4322
Joe Ross RP2.022231152-2919.6452
Andrew Hoffmann RP1.010012023-120.0023
James McCann C1.075500120-1245.0020

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 6th InningRiley walked.
  2. 3rd InningCarroll struck out swinging.
  3. 7th InningDubón walked.
  4. 6th InningPitch 7 : Ball 4

Scoring Plays

  1. 6th InningDubón homered to left center (413 feet).11–1
  2. 5th InningRiley doubled to left, Baldwin scored and Olson scored.7–1
  3. 1st InningOlson homered to center (430 feet).1–0
  4. 5th InningAcuña Jr. walked, Albies scored, Dubón to second, Smith to third.3–1
  5. 9th InningVargas doubled to right, Moreno scored.17–2
  6. 9th InningMateo homered to left (353 feet), Harris II scored.14–1
  7. 5th InningHarris II doubled to left, Albies scored and Yastrzemski scored.10–1
  8. 6th InningYastrzemski grounded out to first, Baldwin scored, Riley to second, Olson to third.12–1
  9. 5th InningBaldwin grounded into fielder's choice to third, Smith scored, Acuña Jr. out at second, Dubón to third.4–1
  10. 9th InningYastrzemski doubled to left, Olson scored.17–1
  11. 9th InningOlson doubled to center, Dubón scored, Baldwin to third.15–1
  12. 5th InningAlbies singled to left, Riley scored, Yastrzemski to second.8–1
  13. 3rd InningSmith homered to right center (430 feet).2–0
  14. 9th InningFarmer hit sacrifice fly to left, Baldwin scored.16–1
  15. 5th InningOlson doubled to right, Dubón scored, Baldwin to third.5–1
  16. 3rd InningLawlar homered to left center (424 feet).2–1

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