BAL @ PIT
PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameOutdoor4:12 PM ET70°F · 9 mph wind · overcast⚾ Kyle Bradish vs Mitch KellerMLB.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates
Baltimore Orioles 4 · Pittsburgh Pirates 5
Final
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Pittsburgh Pirates on the back of Pittsburgh Pirates’s margin work and Pittsburgh Pirates’s last-ten momentum. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 83%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 83%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Baltimore Orioles
- Chris Bassitt SP · #40
- Kyle Bradish SP · #38
- Gunnar Henderson SS · #2
- Pete Alonso 1B · #25
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
Baltimore Orioles
Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreO'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to center, Reynolds scored.2–5
- ScoreHenderson homered to right center (397 feet).4–5
- ScoreCruz singled to left, Davis scored.0–4
- 🏃 DoubleGriffin doubled to center, O'Hearn scored.0–1
- 🏃 DoubleWard doubled to center, Alexander scored.3–5
- 🏃 DoubleRutschman doubled to center, Henderson scored.2–4
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Baltimore Orioles
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 26 | .333 | .424 | .444 |
| Gunnar Henderson SS· | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .233 | .303 | .500 |
| Pete Alonso 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 23 | .259 | .355 | .370 |
| Adley Rutschman C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .294 | .429 | .529 |
| Samuel Basallo C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .174 | .240 | .304 |
| Dylan Beavers RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .333 | .333 | .556 |
| Jeremiah Jackson 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .222 | .211 | .222 |
| Leody Taveras CF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .500 | .667 | .750 |
| Coby Mayo 3B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .118 | .250 | .176 |
| Colton Cowser RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .267 | .368 | .333 |
| Blaze Alexander 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .400 | .400 | .400 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish SP· | 4.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 81-51 | 6.23 | 81 |
| Dietrich Enns RP | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 39-20 | 4.15 | 39 |
| Tyler Wells RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23-15 | 5.79 | 23 |
| Rico Garcia RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8-6 | 0.00 | 8 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .296 | .321 | .630 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | .333 | .462 | .857 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .200 | .250 | .400 |
| Jake Mangum LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .211 | .222 |
| Marcell Ozuna DH· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 24 | .043 | .185 | .043 |
| Ryan O'Hearn RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .381 | .481 | .667 |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .111 | .200 | .111 |
| Konnor Griffin SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .333 | .500 | .667 |
| Jared Triolo SS· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .217 | .308 | .261 |
| Henry Davis C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .176 | .300 | .294 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller SP· | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 88-56 | 1.50 | 88 |
| Yohan Ramirez RP | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19-11 | 1.80 | 19 |
| Mason Montgomery RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-8 | 9.82 | 9 |
| Dennis Santana RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-7 | 0.00 | 10 |
| Gregory Soto RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 20-15 | 1.69 | 20 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 5th InningLowe struck out looking.
- 2nd InningLowe walked.
- 7th InningAlonso walked.
- 5th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking
- 2nd InningPitch 7 : Ball 4
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningO'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to center, Reynolds scored.2–5
- 9th InningHenderson homered to right center (397 feet).4–5
- 2nd InningCruz singled to left, Davis scored.0–4
- 2nd InningGriffin doubled to center, O'Hearn scored.0–1
- 7th InningWard doubled to center, Alexander scored.3–5
- 5th InningRutschman doubled to center, Henderson scored.2–4
- 2nd InningDavis doubled to left, Triolo scored.0–3
- 2nd InningTriolo singled to right, Griffin scored.0–2
- 5th InningHenderson doubled to right, Alexander scored.1–4