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In The Rafters

STL @ DET

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:10 PM ET64°F · 13 mph wind · drizzle⚾ Dustin May vs Jack FlahertyESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVCardinals.TVTigers.TV
Result readDetroit Tigers

St. Louis Cardinals 6 · Detroit Tigers 11

Final
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeComerica ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Detroit Tigers because Detroit Tigers owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and St. Louis Cardinals has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 63%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 5.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

St. Louis Cardinals

Detroit Tigers

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL

St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

St. Louis Cardinals
NC Nathan Church LF · #27 VI V. Scott II CF · #11 JW Jordan Walker RF · #18 NG Nolan Gorman 3B · #16 MW Masyn Winn SS · #0 JW JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26 AB Alec Burleson 1B · #41 ML M. Liberatore P · #32 IH Ivan Herrera C · #48
Detroit Tigers
RG Riley Greene LF · #31 MV Matt Vierling CF · #8 KC K. Carpenter RF · #30 CK Colt Keith 3B · #33 KM K. McGonigle SS · #7 GT Gleyber Torres 2B · #25 ST S. Torkelson 1B · #20 FV Framber Valdez P · #59 DD Dillon Dingler C · #13

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreVierling hit sacrifice fly to left, Meadows scored.4th Inning1–7
  2. ScoreWalker singled to left, Herrera scored.3rd Inning1–3
  3. ScoreVierling homered to right (350 feet), Torkelson scored.8th Inning6–11
  4. ScoreTorres singled to center, Keith scored on fielding error by center fielder Scott II, Torres to second.1st Inning0–1
  5. ScoreWalker homered to left center (459 feet), Herrera scored, Burleson scored and Gorman scored.5th Inning6–7
  6. ScoreMcKinstry homered to right (399 feet), Dingler scored.4th Inning1–6

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
St. Louis Cardinals001050000661
Detroit Tigers30131012—11120

St. Louis Cardinals

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt 2B·1-2211002120.276.371.379
Ivan Herrera C·1-3321001024.214.361.321
Alec Burleson 1B·1-4411101118.276.389.448
Nolan Gorman 3B·0-4410001323.192.250.423
Jordan Walker RF·3-4413510119.296.367.593
Thomas Saggese LF·0-4400000119.143.250.143
Nathan Church LF·0-3300001010.136.174.136
Pedro Pages C·0-110000017.188.278.375
Ramon Urias 3B0-000000001.167.231.500
Victor Scott II CF·0-2200000112.308.308.346
Yohel Pozo C0-110000009.000.000.000

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Dustin May SP·3.177724279-4815.9579
Justin Bruihl RP1.101111027-135.0627
Matt Svanson RP2.131111130-2111.8130
Chris Roycroft RP1.022222133-2212.2733

Detroit Tigers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Colt Keith 3B·2-221200007.417.462.583
Matt Vierling CF1-2211310012.200.182.500
Kevin McGonigle SS·1-4411001116.333.412.500
Gleyber Torres 2B·2-4422111125.259.444.370
Kerry Carpenter RF·1-4411310117.172.265.276
Riley Greene LF·0-2210002019.226.314.323
Dillon Dingler C·0-2210001219.273.385.591
Zach McKinstry 2B·2-4412310125.250.250.438
Spencer Torkelson 1B·1-4411000116.143.200.179
Parker Meadows CF·2-3312001113.238.333.381

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Jack Flaherty SP·4.035546086-477.5686
Drew Anderson RP1.011101117-1110.8017
Brant Hurter RP1.000010013-62.2513
Will Vest RP1.010001019-106.7519
Tyler Holton RP1.010000019-130.0019
Kenley Jansen RP0.10001108-45.408

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningMcKinstry grounded out to first.
  2. 8th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
  3. 8th InningPitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
  4. 8th InningPozo grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Urías out at second.
  5. 8th InningPitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
  6. 8th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play

Scoring Plays

  1. 4th InningVierling hit sacrifice fly to left, Meadows scored.1–7
  2. 3rd InningWalker singled to left, Herrera scored.1–3
  3. 8th InningVierling homered to right (350 feet), Torkelson scored.6–11
  4. 1st InningTorres singled to center, Keith scored on fielding error by center fielder Scott II, Torres to second.0–1
  5. 5th InningWalker homered to left center (459 feet), Herrera scored, Burleson scored and Gorman scored.6–7
  6. 4th InningMcKinstry homered to right (399 feet), Dingler scored.1–6
  7. 3rd InningCarpenter hit sacrifice fly to center, McGonigle scored.1–4
  8. 7th InningTorres homered to right center (364 feet).6–9
  9. 5th InningMcKinstry singled to right, Greene scored, McKinstry to second, Dingler to third.6–8
  10. 1st InningCarpenter homered to left (359 feet), Torres scored.0–3
  11. 5th InningBurleson doubled to left, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.2–7

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