TB @ MIN
Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:10 PM CT⚾ Steven Matz vs Mick AbelMLB.TVTwins.TVRays.TV
Result readTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 7 · Minnesota Twins 1
Final
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeTarget FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Tampa Bay Rays on the back of Tampa Bay Rays’s margin work and Tampa Bay Rays’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 86%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 6.
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 86%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 6.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Tampa Bay Rays
- Drew Rasmussen SP · #57
- Nick Martinez SP · #28
- Cole Sulser RP · #71
- Griffin Jax RP · #22
Minnesota Twins
- Bailey Ober SP · #17
- Joe Ryan SP · #41
- Josh Bell 1B · #56
- Luke Keaschall 2B · #15
Injury Report
Minnesota Twins
Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
Tampa Bay Rays
Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 TripleDíaz tripled to center, Palacios scored.7–1
- ScoreFeduccia singled to right, Williamson scored.6–1
- ScoreWilliamson singled to center, Mullins scored.5–1
- ScoreLee singled to center, Wallner scored on error, Jeffers to second, Lee to second, Jeffers safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Mullins.3–1
- ScoreWilliamson grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Mullins scored, Simpson out at second.4–1
- 🏃 DoubleAranda doubled to right, Williamson scored and Palacios scored, Díaz to third.3–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Tampa Bay Rays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .424 | .500 | .697 |
| Jonathan Aranda 1B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | .242 | .333 | .485 |
| Jake Fraley RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 32 | .278 | .381 | .444 |
| Junior Caminero 3B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .258 | .378 | .290 |
| Cedric Mullins CF· | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .133 | .156 | .167 |
| Chandler Simpson LF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .414 | .469 | .483 |
| Ben Williamson 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .286 | .310 | .321 |
| Hunter Feduccia C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .250 | .333 | .250 |
| Richie Palacios 2B· | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .100 | .357 | .100 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz SP· | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 97-58 | 4.09 | 97 |
| Cole Sulser RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 35-18 | 5.06 | 35 |
| Mason Englert RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-9 | 12.00 | 14 |
Minnesota Twins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Martin LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .214 | .450 | .214 |
| Luke Keaschall 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .219 | .257 | .250 |
| Josh Bell 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | .231 | .382 | .577 |
| Matt Wallner RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | .156 | .229 | .344 |
| Ryan Jeffers C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | .250 | .375 | .300 |
| Victor Caratini C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .227 | .320 | .227 |
| Royce Lewis 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .167 | .310 | .500 |
| Brooks Lee SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .188 | .235 | .188 |
| James Outman CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .000 | .111 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mick Abel SP· | 4.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 84-53 | 11.05 | 84 |
| Taylor Rogers RP | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23-12 | 5.40 | 23 |
| Anthony Banda RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15-10 | 2.08 | 15 |
| Zak Kent RP | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 34-17 | 4.91 | 34 |
| Cody Laweryson RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-7 | 8.10 | 9 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 2nd InningJeffers walked, Wallner to second.
- 2nd InningPitch 10 : Ball 4
- 2nd InningFraley fouled out to third.
- 5th InningMullins singled to center.
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningDíaz tripled to center, Palacios scored.7–1
- 5th InningFeduccia singled to right, Williamson scored.6–1
- 5th InningWilliamson singled to center, Mullins scored.5–1
- 2nd InningLee singled to center, Wallner scored on error, Jeffers to second, Lee to second, Jeffers safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Mullins.3–1
- 3rd InningWilliamson grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Mullins scored, Simpson out at second.4–1
- 2nd InningAranda doubled to right, Williamson scored and Palacios scored, Díaz to third.3–0
- 2nd InningDíaz hit by pitch, Simpson scored, Palacios to second, Williamson to third.1–0