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InTheRafters.com

ATL @ ARI

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameIndoor1:10 PM PT⚾ Martin Perez vs Brandon PfaadtMLB.TVBravesVisionDBACKS.TV
Result readArizona Diamondbacks

Atlanta Braves 5 · Arizona Diamondbacks 6

Final
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeChase FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pick goes to Arizona Diamondbacks on the back of Atlanta Braves’s margin work and Atlanta Braves’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 97%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Atlanta Braves

Arizona Diamondbacks

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL

Atlanta Braves

Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Atlanta Braves
MY M. Yastrzemski LF · #18 MI M. Harris II CF · #23 RA R. Acuna Jr. RF · #13 AR Austin Riley 3B · #27 MD Mauricio Dubon SS · #14 OA Ozzie Albies 2B · #1 MO Matt Olson 1B · #28 BE Bryce Elder P · #55 DB Drake Baldwin C · #30
Arizona Diamondbacks
JB Jorge Barrosa LF · #1 AT Alek Thomas CF · #5 CC Corbin Carroll RF · #7 NA Nolan Arenado 3B · #28 GP G. Perdomo SS · #2 KM Ketel Marte 2B · #4 JF Jose Fernandez 1B · #11 ZG Zac Gallen P · #23 AC A. Castillo C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreBaldwin singled to center, Mateo scored, Acuña Jr. to second.9th Inning5–5
  2. ScoreArenado singled to center, Carroll scored.6th Inning3–4
  3. 🏃 TripleVargas tripled to right, Carroll scored and Arenado scored.4th Inning1–3
  4. ScoreBaldwin homered to right center (398 feet).1st Inning1–0
  5. ScoreDubón scored on Pfaadt wild pitch.5th Inning2–3
  6. ScoreDubón scored on Pfaadt wild pitch.5th Inning2–3

Scoring by Inning

Team12345678910RHE
Atlanta Braves10002010105110
Arizona Diamondbacks1002011001691

Atlanta Braves

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF·2-5502000011.194.318.222
Drake Baldwin C·3-5513410020.300.378.625
Matt Olson 1B·0-3300002221.289.372.579
Mike Yastrzemski LF·1-5501000220.233.324.367
Michael Harris II CF·1-5501000014.225.244.325
Ozzie Albies 2B·1-5501000123.300.349.450
Mauricio Dubon SS·1-5511000117.333.371.485
Eli White CF·0-220000006.091.167.091
Dominic Smith 1B0-110000003.333.391.619
Kyle Farmer 3B0-000000000.500.333.500
Austin Riley 3B0-220000007.176.263.206
Jorge Mateo SS·2-3332001015.429.5001.000

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Martin Perez SP·5.054411075-473.8675
Tyler Kinley RP1.010010019-90.0019
Dylan Lee RP1.021100018-121.8018
Robert Suarez RP1.000003014-100.0014
Raisel Iglesias RP1.000001014-90.0014
Joel Payamps RP0.01100001-16.751

Arizona Diamondbacks

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte 2B·2-5512100014.184.262.316
Corbin Carroll RF·3-4423100016.313.410.656
Geraldo Perdomo SS·0-2200100013.182.243.333
Nolan Arenado 3B·1-3311101120.200.226.200
Jose Fernandez 1B·0-440000018.250.250.625
Carlos Santana 1B·1-110100005.083.154.125
Ildemaro Vargas 1B1-2201201115.545.5831.091
Tim Tawa LF·0-4400000017.154.214.231
James McCann C·0-3300000011.083.154.167
Gabriel Moreno C0-110000015.233.281.300
Jorge Barrosa LF·1-4421000117.231.231.462

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Brandon Pfaadt RP·4.263322179-486.7579
Taylor Clarke RP1.100001017-97.7117
Ryan Thompson RP1.011011014-110.0014
Kevin Ginkel RP1.010001013-1110.8013
Jonathan Loaisiga RP1.031101025-171.6925
Taylor Rashi RP1.00000009-60.009

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 6th InningPerdomo grounded out to second, Carroll to third.
  2. 7th InningMcCann flied out to center.
  3. 6th InningPitch 6 : Ball In Play
  4. 5th InningOlson struck out swinging.
  5. 5th InningMateo walked.

Scoring Plays

  1. 9th InningBaldwin singled to center, Mateo scored, Acuña Jr. to second.5–5
  2. 6th InningArenado singled to center, Carroll scored.3–4
  3. 4th InningVargas tripled to right, Carroll scored and Arenado scored.1–3
  4. 1st InningBaldwin homered to right center (398 feet).1–0
  5. 5th InningDubón scored on Pfaadt wild pitch.2–3
  6. 5th InningDubón scored on Pfaadt wild pitch.2–3
  7. 1st InningPerdomo hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored.1–1
  8. 10th InningMarte doubled to right, Barrosa scored.5–6
  9. 7th InningCarroll tripled to right, Barrosa scored.4–5
  10. 7th InningBaldwin grounded out to second, Mateo scored, Acuña Jr. to second.4–4
  11. 5th InningBaldwin singled to left, Mateo scored, Acuña Jr. to second.3–3

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