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InTheRafters.com

MIA @ NYY

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET⚾ Chris Paddack vs Max FriedMLB.TVMarlins.TV
Result readMiami Marlins

Miami Marlins 7 · New York Yankees 6

Final
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
New York Yankees26-15+1.8 net/g (SOS-adj +1.5) · expected win rate 68% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeYankee StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Miami Marlins is the model’s call — New York Yankees on the margin numbers, New York Yankees on the form numbers. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: New York Yankees at 82%. Actual: Miami Marlins by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Miami Marlins

New York Yankees

Injury Report

New York Yankees

Jose CaballeroDay-To-DayBen HessDay-To-DayGerrit Cole15-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez10-Day-IL

Miami Marlins

Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Miami Marlins
KS Kyle Stowers LF · #28 JM Jakob Marsee CF · #87 OC Owen Caissie RF · #17 GP Graham Pauley 3B · #21 OL Otto Lopez SS · #6 XE Xavier Edwards 2B · #9 CN Connor Norby 1B · #1 EP Eury Perez P · #39 LH Liam Hicks C · #34
New York Yankees
CB Cody Bellinger LF · #35 TG Trent Grisham CF · #12 AJ Aaron Judge RF · #99 RM Ryan McMahon 3B · #19 JC Jose Caballero SS · #72 JC Chisholm Jr. 2B · #13 BR Ben Rice 1B · #22 CS Cam Schlittler P · #31 AW Austin Wells C · #28

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 💣 Home RunMarsee scored on error, Hernández safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Caballero, Lopez safe at third on error.6th Inning3–4
  2. 🏃 DoublePauley doubled to right, Marsee scored and Lopez scored, Conine to third.8th Inning5–4
  3. 🏃 DoubleChisholm Jr. doubled to right, Rice scored and Bellinger scored.9th Inning7–6
  4. ScoreEdwards singled to center, Conine scored and Pauley scored.8th Inning7–4
  5. ScoreRice homered to right (410 feet), Grisham scored and Judge scored.1st Inning1–3
  6. 💣 Home RunRice grounded into fielder's choice to first, Judge scored on error, Bellinger safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Norby, Rice second, Bellinger safe at third on error.3rd Inning1–4

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Miami Marlins100101040771
New York Yankees301000002671

Miami Marlins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Austin Slater LF·2-3312000116.167.214.167
Owen Caissie RF0-2200000211.296.333.593
Agustin Ramirez C·0-5500000315.222.382.259
Jakob Marsee CF·0-3320002226.118.225.206
Otto Lopez SS·2-3312101010.333.405.515
Heriberto Hernandez LF·0-330010008.130.259.217
Griffin Conine LF0-001000001.267.353.533
Connor Norby 1B·0-1110002016.167.333.250
Graham Pauley 3B1-111120005.250.250.438
Xavier Edwards 2B·2-4402300015.471.500.647
Liam Hicks C·0-4400000017.333.414.750
Javier Sanoja 3B·0-4400000112.429.429.571

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Pete Fairbanks RP·1.033311127-166.7527
Andrew Nardi RP1.000001012-103.0012
Chris Paddack SP4.231044088-508.3188
John King RP0.10000005-30.005
Calvin Faucher RP1.000011023-120.0023
Anthony Bender RP1.012232031-2010.8031

New York Yankees

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Trent Grisham CF·0-4410001220.172.368.276
Aaron Judge RF·2-5522000120.250.325.528
Cody Bellinger LF·0-2210003022.267.425.467
Ben Rice 1B·1-2221313028.370.528.852
Giancarlo Stanton DH·2-5502000216.394.429.545
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B·1-5501200023.194.237.278
Austin Wells C·0-4400001220.167.286.167
Jose Caballero SS·0-4400000014.129.206.129
J.C. Escarra C0-110000013.000.000.000
Ryan McMahon 3B·1-3301001120.087.276.087

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Max Fried SP·6.2533340103-641.35103
Fernando Cruz RP0.201112016-92.7016
Jake Bird RP0.013310010-46.2310
Ryan Yarbrough RP1.210003023-160.0023

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningWells flied out to left.
  2. 9th InningRice walked, Bellinger to second.
  3. 8th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
  4. 7th InningCaissie struck out swinging.

Scoring Plays

  1. 6th InningMarsee scored on error, Hernández safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Caballero, Lopez safe at third on error.3–4
  2. 8th InningPauley doubled to right, Marsee scored and Lopez scored, Conine to third.5–4
  3. 9th InningChisholm Jr. doubled to right, Rice scored and Bellinger scored.7–6
  4. 8th InningEdwards singled to center, Conine scored and Pauley scored.7–4
  5. 1st InningRice homered to right (410 feet), Grisham scored and Judge scored.1–3
  6. 3rd InningRice grounded into fielder's choice to first, Judge scored on error, Bellinger safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Norby, Rice second, Bellinger safe at third on error.1–4
  7. 4th InningEdwards doubled to right, Norby scored.2–4
  8. 1st InningLopez singled to center, Slater scored.1–0

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