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In The Rafters

DET @ MIN

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Casey Mize vs Joe RyanMLB.TVTwins.TVTigers.TV
Result readMinnesota Twins

Detroit Tigers 3 · Minnesota Twins 7

Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeTarget FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Minnesota Twins gets the model’s nod thanks to Detroit Tigers’s margin advantage, with Minnesota Twins’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 65%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 4.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Detroit Tigers

Minnesota Twins

Injury Report

Minnesota Twins

Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL

Detroit Tigers

Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Detroit Tigers
RG Riley Greene LF · #31 MV Matt Vierling CF · #8 KC K. Carpenter RF · #30 CK Colt Keith 3B · #33 KM K. McGonigle SS · #7 GT Gleyber Torres 2B · #25 ST S. Torkelson 1B · #20 FV Framber Valdez P · #59 DD Dillon Dingler C · #13
Minnesota Twins
AM Austin Martin LF · #16 BB Byron Buxton CF · #25 MW Matt Wallner RF · #38 RL Royce Lewis 3B · #23 BL Brooks Lee SS · #22 LK Luke Keaschall 2B · #15 JB Josh Bell 1B · #56 BO Bailey Ober P · #17 RJ Ryan Jeffers C · #27

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreKeaschall homered to left (367 feet), Larnach scored.4th Inning3–5
  2. ScoreCaratini singled to center, Buxton scored and Martin scored, Keaschall to second.8th Inning3–7
  3. 🏃 DoubleKeith doubled to right, McGonigle scored, Torres to third.4th Inning1–3
  4. ScoreWallner singled to right, Larnach scored, Keaschall to third.3rd Inning0–2
  5. ScoreCaratini hit sacrifice fly to center, Buxton scored.3rd Inning0–1
  6. ScoreMcKinstry singled to right, Keith and Torres scored, McKinstry to second, Torkelson to third.4th Inning3–3

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Detroit Tigers000300000341
Minnesota Twins00320002—7102

Detroit Tigers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle SS·1-5511000117.289.386.447
Gleyber Torres 2B·0-2210003126.206.413.294
Colt Keith 3B·1-4411100113.387.424.548
Riley Greene LF·0-3300001026.211.302.289
Spencer Torkelson 1B·0-2200002121.161.316.226
Zach McKinstry 2B·1-3301201114.263.300.421
Matt Vierling CF·1-4401000219.188.176.438
Parker Meadows CF·0-220000018.259.333.370
Jahmai Jones RF0-220000017.000.000.000
Jake Rogers C·0-4400000213.100.100.200

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Casey Mize SP·4.175534190-585.2390
Drew Anderson RP3.021124049-267.1149
Brant Hurter RP0.211122023-113.8623

Minnesota Twins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Byron Buxton CF·1-4421001012.147.211.265
Trevor Larnach LF·2-4422000011.333.500.467
Austin Martin LF0-001000104.235.458.235
Luke Keaschall 2B·1-3321212124.205.273.308
Josh Bell 1B·0-3300001021.200.359.500
Kody Clemens 1B0-110000018.143.250.286
Victor Caratini C·2-4402300012.269.333.269
Matt Wallner RF·2-5502100318.220.273.463
Royce Lewis 3B·1-2201102116.192.364.500
James Outman CF·0-4400000419.000.077.000
Brooks Lee SS·1-4401000017.182.250.182

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Joe Ryan SP·5.0332370101-614.40101
Anthony Banda RP1.010001017-111.6917
Eric Orze RP0.200011012-70.0012
Kody Funderburk RP0.200030020-63.6020
Cody Laweryson RP1.200002014-125.4014

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 4th InningTorres walked.
  2. 4th InningGreene popped out to third.
  3. 4th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
  4. 8th InningClemens struck out looking.
  5. 8th InningMcKinstry walked.

Scoring Plays

  1. 4th InningKeaschall homered to left (367 feet), Larnach scored.3–5
  2. 8th InningCaratini singled to center, Buxton scored and Martin scored, Keaschall to second.3–7
  3. 4th InningKeith doubled to right, McGonigle scored, Torres to third.1–3
  4. 3rd InningWallner singled to right, Larnach scored, Keaschall to third.0–2
  5. 3rd InningCaratini hit sacrifice fly to center, Buxton scored.0–1
  6. 4th InningMcKinstry singled to right, Keith and Torres scored, McKinstry to second, Torkelson to third.3–3
  7. 3rd InningLewis singled to left, Keaschall scored, Wallner to second.0–3

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