ARI @ NYM
Citi Field · Queens, New York
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameOutdoor4:10 PM ET42°F · 10 mph wind · clear⚾ Zac Gallen vs Freddy PeraltaMLB.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readNew York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 3 · New York Mets 4
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeCiti FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on New York Mets: Arizona Diamondbacks’s scoring margin profile and New York Mets’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: New York Mets at 62%. Actual: New York Mets by 1.
Pre-game pick: New York Mets at 62%. Actual: New York Mets by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
New York Mets
- Freddy Peralta SP · #51
- Clay Holmes SP · #35
- Tobias Myers RP · #32
- Bo Bichette 3B · #19
Injury Report
New York Mets
Nate LavenderDay-To-DayNick BurdiDay-To-DayGrae KessingerOutJose RojasDay-To-DayA.J. Minter15-Day-IL
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreDel Castillo singled to right, Carroll and Perdomo scored, Moreno to third.2–2
- ScoreYoung hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.3–3
- 🏃 DoubleArenado doubled to center, Moreno scored, Del Castillo to third.3–2
- ScoreMauricio singled to right, Lindor scored.3–4
- ScoreBaty hit sacrifice fly to center, Lindor scored.0–1
- 💣 Home RunLindor doubled to right, Alvarez scored on throwing error by right fielder Carroll, Lindor to third.0–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| New York Mets | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | .209 | .277 | .326 |
| Corbin Carroll RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .297 | .386 | .595 |
| Geraldo Perdomo SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .162 | .238 | .297 |
| Gabriel Moreno C· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | .273 | .351 | .364 |
| Adrian Del Castillo C· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | .125 | .125 | .125 |
| Jose Fernandez 1B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .625 |
| Nolan Arenado 3B· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | .229 | .250 | .257 |
| Ildemaro Vargas 1B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .438 | .471 | .813 |
| Alek Thomas CF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .129 | .182 | .226 |
| Luken Baker 1B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Tim Tawa LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .143 | .200 | .214 |
| Jorge Barrosa LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .188 | .188 | .375 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 95-54 | 3.00 | 95 |
| Ryan Thompson RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8-6 | 0.00 | 8 |
| Juan Morillo RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10-6 | 3.00 | 10 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21-13 | 2.84 | 21 |
| Kevin Ginkel RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-7 | 8.31 | 12 |
| Paul Sewald RP | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6-6 | 4.15 | 6 |
New York Mets
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor SS· | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .167 | .340 | .286 |
| Bo Bichette 3B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .200 | .226 | .240 |
| Jorge Polanco 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .222 | .317 | .306 |
| Tyrone Taylor RF | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .154 | .154 | .385 |
| Ronny Mauricio SS | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Luis Robert Jr. CF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 24 | .313 | .476 | .406 |
| Brett Baty RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .250 | .243 | .361 |
| Mark Vientos 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .417 | .462 | .625 |
| Jared Young 1B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .385 | .438 | .538 |
| Marcus Semien 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .231 | .311 | .359 |
| Carson Benge LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .091 | .211 | .182 |
| Francisco Alvarez C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | .296 | .387 | .667 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta SP· | 4.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 101-62 | 4.80 | 101 |
| Huascar Brazoban RP | 0.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14-8 | 0.00 | 14 |
| Luis Garcia RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23-16 | 3.60 | 23 |
| Brooks Raley RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20-11 | 0.00 | 20 |
| Devin Williams RP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16-14 | 0.00 | 16 |
| Luke Weaver RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-7 | 0.00 | 13 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 5th InningBarrosa struck out swinging.
- 5th InningRobert Jr. walked.
- 5th InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Swinging
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningDel Castillo singled to right, Carroll and Perdomo scored, Moreno to third.2–2
- 8th InningYoung hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.3–3
- 5th InningArenado doubled to center, Moreno scored, Del Castillo to third.3–2
- 10th InningMauricio singled to right, Lindor scored.3–4
- 1st InningBaty hit sacrifice fly to center, Lindor scored.0–1
- 2nd InningLindor doubled to right, Alvarez scored on throwing error by right fielder Carroll, Lindor to third.0–2