KC @ CLE
Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:10 PM ET29°F · 6 mph wind · clear❄️ Cold-weather game · 29°F⚾ Noah Cameron vs Gavin WilliamsESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVCLEGuardians.TVRoyals.TV
Result readCleveland Guardians
Kansas City Royals 1 · Cleveland Guardians 2
Final
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Cleveland Guardians21-21-1-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeProgressive FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Cleveland Guardians gets the model’s nod thanks to Cleveland Guardians’s margin advantage, with Kansas City Royals’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Kansas City Royals at 53%. Actual: Cleveland Guardians by 1.
Pre-game pick: Kansas City Royals at 53%. Actual: Cleveland Guardians by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Kansas City Royals
- Cole Ragans SP · #55
- Kris Bubic SP · #50
- Luinder Avila RP · #58
- Bobby Witt Jr. SS · #7
Cleveland Guardians
- Gavin Williams SP · #32
- Joey Cantillo SP · #54
- Jose Ramirez 3B · #11
- Brayan Rocchio SS · #4
Injury Report
Cleveland Guardians
Gabriel Arias10-Day-ILShawn Armstrong15-Day-ILAndrew Walters15-Day-ILCarlos HernandezDay-To-Day
Kansas City Royals
Bailey Falter15-Day-ILCole Ragans15-Day-ILJames McArthur60-Day-ILAnthony SimonelliDay-To-DayJavier VazDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreRocchio singled to right, Kayfus scored, Naylor to second.1–2
- ScoreKwan singled to left, Hedges scored.1–1
- ScoreJensen homered to right center (389 feet).1–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Kansas City Royals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | .310 | .388 | .476 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .250 | .354 | .250 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .195 | .306 | .220 |
| Lane Thomas CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .118 | .250 | .176 |
| Salvador Perez C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | .171 | .244 | .366 |
| Carter Jensen C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .259 | .323 | .630 |
| Jonathan India 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .226 | .333 | .419 |
| Jac Caglianone RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | .250 | .325 | .306 |
| Isaac Collins LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | .194 | .324 | .323 |
| Kyle Isbel CF· | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 | .429 | .467 | .679 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cameron SP· | 5.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 97-61 | 1.69 | 97 |
| Daniel Lynch IV RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-10 | 1.69 | 13 |
| Nick Mears RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24-16 | 0.00 | 24 |
| John Schreiber RP | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19-10 | 6.23 | 19 |
Cleveland Guardians
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .244 | .320 | .356 |
| Angel Martinez LF· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .208 | .345 | .250 |
| Daniel Schneemann CF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .179 | .179 | .321 |
| Jose Ramirez 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .133 | .220 | .244 |
| David Fry RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .250 | .357 | .333 |
| Chase DeLauter RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | .286 | .350 | .714 |
| Rhys Hoskins 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | .174 | .345 | .261 |
| Kyle Manzardo 1B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .061 | .205 | .061 |
| Juan Brito 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .500 | .500 | .750 |
| CJ Kayfus LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .182 | .280 | .364 |
| Austin Hedges C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .455 | .455 | .636 |
| Bo Naylor C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | .138 | .242 | .138 |
| Brayan Rocchio SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .206 | .341 | .324 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams SP· | 5.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 102-59 | 2.04 | 102 |
| Tim Herrin RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11-5 | 0.00 | 11 |
| Erik Sabrowski RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15-10 | 0.00 | 15 |
| Shawn Armstrong RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 25-13 | 2.70 | 25 |
| Cade Smith RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10-7 | 6.43 | 10 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningSchneemann struck out swinging.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 9th InningIndia struck out swinging.
- 8th InningPitch 7 : Ball 2
- 9th InningPitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 8th InningPitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningRocchio singled to right, Kayfus scored, Naylor to second.1–2
- 5th InningKwan singled to left, Hedges scored.1–1
- 2nd InningJensen homered to right center (389 feet).1–0