SD @ PIT
PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET32°F · 6 mph wind · clear⚾ Nick Pivetta vs Paul SkenesMLB.TVPadres.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres 1 · Pittsburgh Pirates 7
Final
San Diego Padres24-16+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 50%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pittsburgh Pirates is the model’s call — Pittsburgh Pirates on the margin numbers, Pittsburgh Pirates on the form numbers. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 69%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 6.
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 69%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 6.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish SP · #11
- German Marquez SP · #33
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · #23
- Jackson Merrill CF · #3
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
San Diego Padres
Jake Cronenworth7-day ilGerman Marquez15-Day-ILBlake HuntDay-To-DayJhony Brito60-Day-ILLuis Campusano10-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreGriffin singled to left, Gonzales and Mangum scored.1–7
- ScoreBogaerts homered to left (383 feet).1–2
- ScoreMangum singled to right, Yorke scored, Gonzales to third.1–5
- 🏃 DoubleCruz doubled to left, Griffin and Horwitz scored, Cruz safe at third on fielding error by catcher Fermin.0–2
- ScoreGonzales singled to right, O'Hearn and Reynolds scored, Yorke to third.1–4
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | — | 7 | 12 | 0 |
San Diego Padres
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Laureano LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .225 | .262 | .425 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .195 | .292 | .268 |
| Jackson Merrill CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .225 | .279 | .425 |
| Manny Machado 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | .206 | .400 | .353 |
| Xander Bogaerts SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .233 | .283 | .349 |
| Gavin Sheets 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .207 | .233 | .310 |
| Miguel Andujar 3B· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .280 | .357 | .400 |
| Freddy Fermin C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .167 | .231 | .250 |
| Jake Cronenworth 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | .162 | .262 | .189 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta SP· | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 86-60 | 5.54 | 86 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez RP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23-16 | 1.42 | 23 |
| Wandy Peralta RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13-8 | 3.60 | 13 |
| Adrian Morejon RP | 0.1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20-16 | 10.80 | 20 |
| Ron Marinaccio RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6-4 | 2.35 | 6 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz CF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .295 | .340 | .591 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | .243 | .364 | .541 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | .256 | .340 | .419 |
| Ryan O'Hearn RF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 | .389 | .489 | .694 |
| Nick Yorke 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .278 | .417 | .333 |
| Nick Gonzales 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .297 | .350 | .351 |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .250 | .371 | .286 |
| Jake Mangum LF | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .240 | .269 | .280 |
| Konnor Griffin SS· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .176 | .300 | .235 |
| Henry Davis C· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .222 | .323 | .333 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes SP· | 6.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 87-53 | 5.25 | 87 |
| Isaac Mattson RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9-6 | 2.70 | 9 |
| Gregory Soto RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-6 | 1.23 | 10 |
| Yohan Ramirez RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12-9 | 2.35 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 4th InningYorke struck out swinging.
- 4th InningO'Hearn walked.
- 3rd InningDavis doubled to right.
- 6th InningReynolds grounded out to pitcher.
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningGriffin singled to left, Gonzales and Mangum scored.1–7
- 7th InningBogaerts homered to left (383 feet).1–2
- 8th InningMangum singled to right, Yorke scored, Gonzales to third.1–5
- 5th InningCruz doubled to left, Griffin and Horwitz scored, Cruz safe at third on fielding error by catcher Fermin.0–2
- 8th InningGonzales singled to right, O'Hearn and Reynolds scored, Yorke to third.1–4