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InTheRafters.com

STL @ WSH

Joshua Silvia
12–19 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:45 PM ET⚾ Matthew Liberatore vs Cade CavalliMLB.TVCardinals.TVNationals.TV
Result readSt. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals 7 · Washington Nationals 6

Final
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Washington Nationals19-22-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeNationals ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans St. Louis Cardinals because St. Louis Cardinals owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and St. Louis Cardinals has the recent-form edge. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 63%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

St. Louis Cardinals

Washington Nationals

Injury Report

Washington Nationals

Cole Henry15-Day-ILClayton Beeter15-Day-ILJosiah Gray60-Day-ILTrevor Williams60-Day-ILTyler BaumDay-To-Day

St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

St. Louis Cardinals
NC Nathan Church LF · #27 VI V. Scott II CF · #11 JW Jordan Walker RF · #18 NG Nolan Gorman 3B · #16 MW Masyn Winn SS · #0 JW JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26 AB Alec Burleson 1B · #41 ML M. Liberatore P · #32 IH Ivan Herrera C · #48
Washington Nationals
DL Daylen Lile LF · #4 JY Jacob Young CF · #30 JW James Wood RF · #29 BH Brady House 3B · #12 CA CJ Abrams SS · #5 NN Nasim Nunez 2B · #26 LG L. Garcia Jr. 1B · #2 CC Cade Cavalli P · #24 DM Drew Millas C · #14

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreMead singled to center, Wood scored.6th Inning2–5
  2. ScoreLile scored on O'Brien wild pitch, Vivas to third on wild pitch by O'Brien.10th Inning7–6
  3. ScoreLile scored on O'Brien wild pitch, Vivas to third on wild pitch by O'Brien.10th Inning7–6
  4. 🏃 DoubleSaggese doubled to center, Winn scored.10th Inning6–5
  5. ScoreChurch homered to right (378 feet), Winn scored.8th Inning5–5
  6. ScoreWood homered to left center (394 feet).3rd Inning2–2

Scoring by Inning

Team12345678910RHE
St. Louis Cardinals2000001202791
Washington Nationals10102100016102

St. Louis Cardinals

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt 2B·1-5511101124.268.380.366
Ivan Herrera C·0-4400002027.179.353.256
Alec Burleson 1B·1-3311002021.225.360.350
Jordan Walker RF·1-5511210118.300.364.650
Nolan Gorman 3B·3-4403101114.243.310.405
Masyn Winn SS·0-2220002027.176.300.235
Thomas Saggese LF·2-5512100220.240.345.320
Pedro Pages C·0-2200001118.182.280.318
Yohel Pozo C0-220000006.000.000.000
Victor Scott II CF·0-2200000110.265.265.294
Ramon Urias 3B0-000000104.313.389.813
Nathan Church LF1-2211210111.143.172.250

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Matthew Liberatore SP·5.094426292-603.3892
Gordon Graceffo RP2.011122035-181.9335
George Soriano RP2.000003020-153.0020
Riley O'Brien RP1.001002016-100.0016

Washington Nationals

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
James Wood RF·2-4432111123.191.309.511
Curtis Mead 1B·3-4413210120.333.412.667
Luis Garcia Jr. 1B0-110000005.297.316.514
Brady House 3B·1-5501000116.317.378.537
Daylen Lile LF·1-4421101218.286.327.347
Joey Wiemer RF·1-4401000212.440.533.760
Jorbit Vivas 3B0-000000006.412.522.412
CJ Abrams SS·2-4402101221.308.413.615
Jacob Young CF·0-4400000111.214.267.393
Nasim Nunez 2B·0-4400001119.200.282.200
Keibert Ruiz C·0-330000019.190.182.381
Jose Tena 2B0-110000013.278.316.278
Drew Millas C0-000000000.176.333.176

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Cade Cavalli SP·4.242143094-532.5194
Paxton Schultz RP1.010011026-130.0026
PJ Poulin RP1.111122127-155.6827
Gus Varland RP1.012211122-156.7522
Clayton Beeter RP1.000020015-93.1815
Cole Henry RP1.022101016-131.6916

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 6th InningPagés flied out to right.
  2. 10th InningVivas hit by pitch.

Scoring Plays

  1. 6th InningMead singled to center, Wood scored.2–5
  2. 10th InningLile scored on O'Brien wild pitch, Vivas to third on wild pitch by O'Brien.7–6
  3. 10th InningLile scored on O'Brien wild pitch, Vivas to third on wild pitch by O'Brien.7–6
  4. 10th InningSaggese doubled to center, Winn scored.6–5
  5. 8th InningChurch homered to right (378 feet), Winn scored.5–5
  6. 3rd InningWood homered to left center (394 feet).2–2
  7. 1st InningGorman singled to right, Burleson scored, Gorman thrown out at second, Walker to third.2–0
  8. 1st InningWalker grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wetherholt scored on error, Burleson safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Abrams.1–0
  9. 7th InningWalker homered to right center (386 feet).3–5
  10. 5th InningMead homered to center (398 feet).2–3
  11. 10th InningWetherholt doubled to right, Saggese scored.7–5
  12. 5th InningAbrams singled to right, Lile scored, Wiemer to third.2–4
  13. 1st InningLile singled to center, Wood scored, House to third.2–1

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