MIL @ BOS
Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET39°F · 6 mph wind · clear⚾ Shane Drohan vs Sonny GrayMLB.TVBrewers.TV
Result readBoston Red Sox
Milwaukee Brewers 0 · Boston Red Sox 5
Final
Milwaukee Brewers22-16-2+1.4 net/g (SOS-adj +1.4) · expected win rate 64% · last 10: 75%
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeFenway ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Boston Red Sox because Milwaukee Brewers owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Milwaukee Brewers has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 93%. Actual: Boston Red Sox by 5.
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 93%. Actual: Boston Red Sox by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Milwaukee Brewers
- Jacob Misiorowski SP · #32
- Kyle Harrison SP · #52
- Aaron Ashby RP · #26
- DL Hall RP · #37
Boston Red Sox
- Brayan Bello SP · #66
- Connelly Early SP · #71
- Trevor Story SS · #10
- Willson Contreras 1B · #40
Injury Report
Boston Red Sox
Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
Milwaukee Brewers
J.B. BukauskasDay-To-DayBrandon Woodruff15-Day-ILChristian Yelich10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge10-Day-ILRob Zastryzny60-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreContreras walked, Rafaela scored, Monasterio to second, Kiner-Falefa to third.0–1
- ScoreDurbin grounded into fielder's choice to second, Abreu scored, Story out at second.0–5
- ScoreStory singled to left, Contreras scored, Abreu to third.0–4
- ScoreAbreu reached on infield single to shortstop, Kiner-Falefa scored, Contreras to second, Monasterio to third.0–2
- ScoreStory hit sacrifice fly to right, Monasterio scored.0–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | 5 | 7 | 0 |
Milwaukee Brewers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sal Frelick RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .243 | .378 | .378 |
| Garrett Mitchell CF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 20 | .310 | .429 | .517 |
| Christian Yelich LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .372 | .413 | .535 |
| Jake Bauers 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .189 | .250 | .378 |
| Luis Matos RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .111 | .200 | .111 |
| Gary Sanchez C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .263 | .417 | .737 |
| Luis Rengifo 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | .167 | .211 | .278 |
| Brandon Lockridge LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .300 | .364 | .333 |
| David Hamilton 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .261 | .485 | .261 |
| Joey Ortiz SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .242 | .286 | .242 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Drohan RP· | 2.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 63-28 | 10.13 | 63 |
| Grant Anderson RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 31-16 | 2.25 | 31 |
| Aaron Ashby RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11-8 | 2.79 | 11 |
| Jake Woodford RP | 3.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 41-29 | 4.26 | 41 |
Boston Red Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23 | .217 | .308 | .348 |
| Andruw Monasterio SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 24 | .100 | .308 | .200 |
| Willson Contreras 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .250 | .434 | .425 |
| Wilyer Abreu RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .383 | .408 | .702 |
| Trevor Story SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .151 | .145 | .245 |
| Caleb Durbin 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .111 | .179 | .139 |
| Carlos Narvaez C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .231 | .259 | .231 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .324 | .378 | .412 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .091 | .167 | .091 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray SP· | 6.1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 90-53 | 2.76 | 90 |
| Greg Weissert RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11-8 | 8.44 | 11 |
| Tyler Samaniego RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 19-11 | 0.00 | 19 |
| Ryan Watson RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12-8 | 3.86 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 4th InningMonasterio walked.
- 4th InningPitch 7 : Ball 4
- 9th InningRengifo grounded out to second.
- 8th InningYelich struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 3rd InningContreras walked, Rafaela scored, Monasterio to second, Kiner-Falefa to third.0–1
- 7th InningDurbin grounded into fielder's choice to second, Abreu scored, Story out at second.0–5
- 7th InningStory singled to left, Contreras scored, Abreu to third.0–4
- 3rd InningAbreu reached on infield single to shortstop, Kiner-Falefa scored, Contreras to second, Monasterio to third.0–2
- 3rd InningStory hit sacrifice fly to right, Monasterio scored.0–3