DET @ MIN
Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor12:40 PM CT⚾ Jack Flaherty vs Mick AbelESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVTwins.TVTigers.TV
Result readMinnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers 1 · Minnesota Twins 3
Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Minnesota Twins18-23-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.5) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeTarget FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Minnesota Twins is the model’s call — Detroit Tigers on the margin numbers, Minnesota Twins on the form numbers. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 63%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 2.
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 63%. Actual: Minnesota Twins by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
Minnesota Twins
- Bailey Ober SP · #17
- Joe Ryan SP · #41
- Josh Bell 1B · #56
- Luke Keaschall 2B · #15
Injury Report
Minnesota Twins
Cory LewisDay-To-DayGarrett Acton15-Day-ILCole Sands15-Day-ILJulian MerryweatherDay-To-DayCody Laweryson15-Day-IL
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreLee singled to right, Caratini scored and Wallner scored, Lewis to third.1–3
- ScoreTorres hit sacrifice fly to right, Rogers scored.1–1
- ScoreBell homered to right center (401 feet).0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt Keith 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .350 | .395 | .500 |
| Gleyber Torres 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .234 | .383 | .319 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .200 | .298 | .280 |
| Kerry Carpenter RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .184 | .289 | .342 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .184 | .354 | .237 |
| Zach McKinstry 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | .200 | .273 | .333 |
| Javier Baez SS· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .323 | .353 | .419 |
| Parker Meadows CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .250 | .308 | .333 |
| Kevin McGonigle SS | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .286 | .364 | .429 |
| Jake Rogers C· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .083 | .154 | .167 |
| Dillon Dingler C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .265 | .390 | .471 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty SP· | 5.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 89-50 | 5.14 | 89 |
| Tyler Holton RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24-12 | 0.00 | 24 |
| Will Vest RP | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 34-19 | 7.94 | 34 |
| Brant Hurter RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 3.60 | 1 |
Minnesota Twins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | .200 | .288 | .311 |
| Trevor Larnach LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | .263 | .440 | .368 |
| Josh Bell 1B· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .317 | .431 | .634 |
| Matt Wallner RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .231 | .286 | .442 |
| Victor Caratini C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .289 | .349 | .316 |
| Kody Clemens 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 19 | .130 | .286 | .261 |
| Royce Lewis 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .222 | .378 | .444 |
| Tristan Gray 3B· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .313 | .368 | .563 |
| Austin Martin LF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .250 | .455 | .250 |
| Brooks Lee SS | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .194 | .242 | .194 |
| James Outman CF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .000 | .067 | .000 |
| Luke Keaschall 2B | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .200 | .255 | .280 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mick Abel SP· | 6.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 102-70 | 6.08 | 102 |
| Garrett Acton RP | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 35-22 | 4.50 | 35 |
| Eric Orze RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-12 | 1.59 | 14 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningWallner walked.
- 2nd InningMcKinstry walked.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
- 5th InningKeith lined out to center.
- 2nd InningPitch 10 : Ball 4
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningLee singled to right, Caratini scored and Wallner scored, Lewis to third.1–3
- 7th InningTorres hit sacrifice fly to right, Rogers scored.1–1
- 4th InningBell homered to right center (401 feet).0–1