BOS @ STL
Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:15 PM CT53°F · 6 mph wind · clear⚾ Connelly Early vs Dustin MayMLB.TVCardinals.TV
Result readSt. Louis Cardinals
Boston Red Sox 2 · St. Louis Cardinals 3
Final
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeBusch StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans St. Louis Cardinals because St. Louis Cardinals owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and St. Louis Cardinals has the recent-form edge. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 59%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 1.
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 59%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Boston Red Sox
- Brayan Bello SP · #66
- Connelly Early SP · #71
- Trevor Story SS · #10
- Willson Contreras 1B · #40
St. Louis Cardinals
- Matthew Liberatore SP · #32
- Andre Pallante SP · #53
- Ivan Herrera C · #48
- JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26
Injury Report
St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
Boston Red Sox
Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreFermín hit sacrifice fly to left, Urías scored.2–3
- 💣 Home RunStory grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Yoshida scored on error, Abreu out at second, Story safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Wetherholt.1–1
- ScoreScott II hit sacrifice fly to left, Urías scored.0–1
- ScoreStory stole home, Mayer stole second.2–1
- ScoreSaggese singled to left, Walker scored, Urías to second.2–2
- ScoreStory stole home, Mayer stole second.2–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 | 8 | 1 |
Boston Red Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .162 | .279 | .216 |
| Caleb Durbin 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .103 | .186 | .128 |
| Masataka Yoshida LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .263 | .500 | .368 |
| Willson Contreras 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .227 | .404 | .386 |
| Wilyer Abreu RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .392 | .415 | .686 |
| Trevor Story SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .140 | .136 | .228 |
| Marcelo Mayer 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .182 | .222 | .364 |
| Carlos Narvaez C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .207 | .233 | .207 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .324 | .375 | .432 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connelly Early SP· | 4.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 86-53 | 2.63 | 86 |
| Zack Kelly RP | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18-9 | 8.10 | 18 |
| Tyler Samaniego RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22-11 | 0.00 | 22 |
| Greg Weissert RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18-12 | 6.75 | 18 |
| Jovani Moran RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17-12 | 2.25 | 17 |
St. Louis Cardinals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 28 | .229 | .367 | .313 |
| Ivan Herrera C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | .200 | .393 | .267 |
| Alec Burleson 1B· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .245 | .367 | .347 |
| Jordan Walker RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .313 | .377 | .667 |
| Ramon Urias 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .261 | .346 | .652 |
| Masyn Winn SS· | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | .154 | .298 | .205 |
| Thomas Saggese LF | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .258 | .343 | .323 |
| Jose Fermin LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .200 | .167 | .200 |
| Nathan Church LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .156 | .182 | .250 |
| Pedro Pages C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .192 | .276 | .346 |
| Victor Scott II CF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .278 | .289 | .306 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May SP· | 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 75-54 | 9.45 | 75 |
| Ryne Stanek RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-7 | 5.40 | 10 |
| JoJo Romero RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21-12 | 0.00 | 21 |
| Riley O'Brien RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8-6 | 0.00 | 8 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 5th InningFermín hit sacrifice fly to left, Urías scored.2–3
- 5th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningFermín hit sacrifice fly to left, Urías scored.2–3
- 4th InningStory grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Yoshida scored on error, Abreu out at second, Story safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Wetherholt.1–1
- 2nd InningScott II hit sacrifice fly to left, Urías scored.0–1
- 4th InningStory stole home, Mayer stole second.2–1
- 5th InningSaggese singled to left, Walker scored, Urías to second.2–2
- 4th InningStory stole home, Mayer stole second.2–1