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InTheRafters.com

MIA @ DET

Joshua Silvia
11–17 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET44°F · 3 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Chris Paddack vs Keider MonteroMLB.TVMarlins.TVTigers.TV
Result readDetroit Tigers

Miami Marlins 0 · Detroit Tigers 2

Final
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeComerica ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Detroit Tigers gets the model’s nod thanks to Detroit Tigers’s margin advantage, with Detroit Tigers’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 51%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Miami Marlins

Detroit Tigers

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL

Miami Marlins

Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Miami Marlins
KS Kyle Stowers LF · #28 JM Jakob Marsee CF · #87 OC Owen Caissie RF · #17 GP Graham Pauley 3B · #21 OL Otto Lopez SS · #6 XE Xavier Edwards 2B · #9 CN Connor Norby 1B · #1 EP Eury Perez P · #39 LH Liam Hicks C · #34
Detroit Tigers
RG Riley Greene LF · #31 MV Matt Vierling CF · #8 KC K. Carpenter RF · #30 CK Colt Keith 3B · #33 KM K. McGonigle SS · #7 GT Gleyber Torres 2B · #25 ST S. Torkelson 1B · #20 FV Framber Valdez P · #59 DD Dillon Dingler C · #13

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreBáez homered to left (354 feet).5th Inning0–2
  2. ScoreTorkelson singled to left, Dingler scored, Carpenter to second.2nd Inning0–1

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Miami Marlins000000000021
Detroit Tigers01001000—280

Miami Marlins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jakob Marsee CF·0-4400000217.148.254.204
Xavier Edwards 2B·1-4401000212.385.439.577
Agustin Ramirez C·0-4400000110.229.339.333
Liam Hicks C·0-3300000011.289.364.553
Otto Lopez SS·0-330000008.313.377.458
Owen Caissie RF·0-2200001218.306.381.583
Connor Norby 1B·1-2201001112.222.378.389
Graham Pauley 3B·0-3300000014.179.179.321
Javier Sanoja 3B·0-3300000112.371.389.457

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Chris Paddack SP·6.072214196-656.1496
Lake Bachar RP2.010003034-213.8634

Detroit Tigers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle SS·1-3301001125.288.373.423
Gleyber Torres 2B·0-4400000116.216.359.294
Colt Keith 3B·2-4402000014.364.404.500
Zach McKinstry 2B0-000000000.200.273.333
Riley Greene LF·1-4401000119.204.295.278
Dillon Dingler C·1-3311000013.270.386.459
Kerry Carpenter RF·1-4401000211.190.286.333
Spencer Torkelson 1B·1-3301100110.195.353.244
Wenceel Perez RF·0-3300000010.000.000.000
Javier Baez SS·1-3311110112.324.351.500

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Keider Montero SP·6.020017080-551.7480
Brant Hurter RP1.000001010-93.0010
Kyle Finnegan RP1.000010012-80.0012
Kenley Jansen RP1.000001012-73.3812

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 2nd InningMcGonigle walked, Torkelson to second, Carpenter to third.
  2. 2nd InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
  3. 1st InningGreene grounded out to first.
  4. 9th InningMarsee struck out looking.

Scoring Plays

  1. 5th InningBáez homered to left (354 feet).0–2
  2. 2nd InningTorkelson singled to left, Dingler scored, Carpenter to second.0–1

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