BOS @ STL
Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:15 PM CT74°F · 14 mph wind · overcast⚾ Brayan Bello vs Andre PallanteMLB.TVCardinals.TV
Result readBoston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 9 · St. Louis Cardinals 3
Final
Boston Red Sox17-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 47% · last 10: 55%
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeBusch StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Boston Red Sox is the model’s call — St. Louis Cardinals on the margin numbers, St. Louis Cardinals on the form numbers. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 60%. Actual: Boston Red Sox by 6.
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 60%. Actual: Boston Red Sox by 6.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Boston Red Sox
- Brayan Bello SP · #66
- Connelly Early SP · #71
- Trevor Story SS · #10
- Willson Contreras 1B · #40
St. Louis Cardinals
- Matthew Liberatore SP · #32
- Andre Pallante SP · #53
- Ivan Herrera C · #48
- JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26
Injury Report
St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
Boston Red Sox
Willson ContrerasDay-To-DayKutter Crawford15-Day-ILRoman Anthony10-Day-ILDanny Coulombe15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleStory doubled to right, Abreu scored and Duran scored.9–3
- ScoreContreras homered to center (411 feet), Durbin scored.2–0
- 🏃 DoubleDuran doubled to center, Durbin scored, Wong scored and Rafaela scored.6–1
- ScoreContreras singled to left, Duran scored.7–1
- ScoreWalker homered to left center (432 feet).3–1
- ScoreBurleson homered to center (430 feet).7–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 0 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Boston Red Sox
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony LF· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | .200 | .290 | .309 |
| Caleb Durbin 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .106 | .208 | .128 |
| Jarren Duran LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | .196 | .302 | .261 |
| Willson Contreras 1B· | 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | .302 | .448 | .509 |
| Wilyer Abreu RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .339 | .381 | .593 |
| Trevor Story SS· | 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .182 | .188 | .273 |
| Marcelo Mayer 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .200 | .267 | .350 |
| Connor Wong C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .375 | .412 | .563 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .302 | .375 | .395 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello SP· | 6.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 94-61 | 6.14 | 94 |
| Danny Coulombe RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5-2 | 2.25 | 5 |
| Zack Kelly RP | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 23-16 | 6.75 | 23 |
St. Louis Cardinals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .214 | .338 | .286 |
| Ivan Herrera C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .192 | .377 | .250 |
| Alec Burleson 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .259 | .379 | .407 |
| Jordan Walker RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .327 | .393 | .745 |
| Nolan Gorman 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .205 | .302 | .341 |
| Ramon Urias 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .233 | .324 | .533 |
| Jose Fermin LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .250 | .231 | .250 |
| Thomas Saggese LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .243 | .317 | .297 |
| Victor Scott II CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .268 | .279 | .293 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante SP· | 5.0 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 95-61 | 4.80 | 95 |
| George Soriano RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-10 | 2.57 | 13 |
| Jared Shuster RP | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 50-26 | 4.91 | 50 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningStory doubled to right, Abreu scored and Duran scored.9–3
- 5th InningUrías walked.
- 2nd InningGorman struck out swinging.
- 9th InningPitch 6 : Ball In Play
Scoring Plays
- 9th InningStory doubled to right, Abreu scored and Duran scored.9–3
- 1st InningContreras homered to center (411 feet), Durbin scored.2–0
- 4th InningDuran doubled to center, Durbin scored, Wong scored and Rafaela scored.6–1
- 4th InningContreras singled to left, Duran scored.7–1
- 2nd InningWalker homered to left center (432 feet).3–1
- 8th InningBurleson homered to center (430 feet).7–3
- 6th InningGorman hit sacrifice fly to center, Herrera scored, Walker to second, Burleson to third.7–2
- 2nd InningAnthony grounded out to third, Story scored, Rafaela to second, Mayer to third.3–0