KC @ DET
Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Seth Lugo vs Jack FlahertyMLB.TVRoyals.TVTigers.TV
Result readDetroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals 1 · Detroit Tigers 2
Final
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeComerica ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Detroit Tigers: Detroit Tigers’s scoring margin profile and Kansas City Royals’s recent stretch. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Kansas City Royals at 57%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 1.
Pre-game pick: Kansas City Royals at 57%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Kansas City Royals
- Cole Ragans SP · #55
- Kris Bubic SP · #50
- Luinder Avila RP · #58
- Bobby Witt Jr. SS · #7
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
Injury Report
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
Kansas City Royals
Bailey Falter15-Day-ILCole Ragans15-Day-ILJames McArthur60-Day-ILAnthony SimonelliDay-To-DayJavier VazDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreRogers hit sacrifice fly to right, Báez scored.0–1
- ScorePérez homered to right (360 feet).1–2
- ScoreIsbel singled to right, Massey scored, Caglianone to third.1–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Kansas City Royals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .286 | .354 | .443 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .254 | .346 | .299 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .152 | .247 | .197 |
| Salvador Perez C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .149 | .208 | .269 |
| Carter Jensen C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .204 | .245 | .469 |
| Michael Massey 2B· | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | .167 | .231 | .250 |
| Jonathan India 2B | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .167 | .327 | .310 |
| Jac Caglianone RF· | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .275 | .362 | .392 |
| Tyler Tolbert LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Lane Thomas CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | .167 | .306 | .200 |
| Kyle Isbel CF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .317 | .391 | .488 |
| Starling Marte RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .211 | .211 | .316 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo SP· | 6.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 92-61 | 1.48 | 92 |
| Daniel Lynch IV RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4-3 | 1.35 | 4 |
| Eli Morgan RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20-12 | 1.50 | 20 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | .313 | .421 | .484 |
| Gleyber Torres 2B· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .234 | .351 | .297 |
| Colt Keith 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .310 | .344 | .431 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | .227 | .320 | .333 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .196 | .369 | .235 |
| Kerry Carpenter RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .196 | .300 | .392 |
| Matt Vierling CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .174 | .200 | .348 |
| Zach McKinstry 2B· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .209 | .261 | .326 |
| Wenceel Perez RF | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .091 | .167 | .364 |
| Javier Baez SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .295 | .319 | .455 |
| Jake Rogers C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .071 | .125 | .143 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty SP· | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 97-53 | 4.05 | 97 |
| Tyler Holton RP | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14-9 | 0.00 | 14 |
| Kyle Finnegan RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16-12 | 0.00 | 16 |
| Kenley Jansen RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20-15 | 1.93 | 20 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningJensen struck out swinging.
- 9th InningThomas flied out to left.
- 9th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 9th InningPitch 5 : Ball In Play
- 9th InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
- 5th InningThomas struck out looking.
- 9th InningPitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
- 9th InningPitch 6 : Ball 3
Scoring Plays
- 3rd InningRogers hit sacrifice fly to right, Báez scored.0–1
- 8th InningPérez homered to right (360 feet).1–2
- 5th InningIsbel singled to right, Massey scored, Caglianone to third.1–1