SF @ CIN
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Tyler Mahle vs Rhett LowderMLB.TVReds.TV
Result readCincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants 3 · Cincinnati Reds 8
Final
San Francisco Giants16-24-1-1.2 net/g (SOS-adj -1.2) · expected win rate 36% · last 10: 30%
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Venue EdgeGreat American Ball ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Cincinnati Reds because Cincinnati Reds owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and San Francisco Giants has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: San Francisco Giants at 53%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 5.
Pre-game pick: San Francisco Giants at 53%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
San Francisco Giants
- Logan Webb SP · #62
- Robbie Ray SP · #38
- Jung Hoo Lee RF · #51
- Matt Chapman 3B · #26
Cincinnati Reds
- Andrew Abbott SP · #41
- Brady Singer SP · #51
- Elly De La Cruz SS · #44
- Matt McLain 2B · #9
Injury Report
Cincinnati Reds
Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
San Francisco Giants
Daniel Susac10-Day-ILHarrison Bader10-Day-ILErik Miller15-Day-ILJason Foley60-Day-ILLogan Webb15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreRamos singled to right, Devers scored, Susac to second.3–8
- ScoreDe La Cruz homered to center (442 feet).2–8
- ScoreStewart homered to right center (387 feet), Friedl scored and McLain scored.0–3
- 🏃 DoubleSusac doubled to left, Lee scored and Chapman scored.2–4
- ScoreSuárez homered to right (349 feet).0–4
- ScoreStewart homered to right center (383 feet), McLain scored and De La Cruz scored.2–7
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 8 | 10 | 0 |
San Francisco Giants
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | .257 | .307 | .514 |
| Luis Arraez 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .333 | .371 | .413 |
| Casey Schmitt 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .311 | .380 | .489 |
| Rafael Devers 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .229 | .280 | .329 |
| Matt Chapman 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .271 | .320 | .386 |
| Jung Hoo Lee RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .213 | .275 | .361 |
| Daniel Susac C· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .563 | .588 | .750 |
| Will Brennan LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Heliot Ramos LF | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .234 | .258 | .266 |
| Drew Gilbert CF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jerar Encarnacion RF | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .250 | .250 | .292 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle SP· | 4.0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 89-49 | 7.23 | 89 |
| Blade Tidwell RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-9 | 2.57 | 13 |
| Ryan Borucki RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-7 | 7.11 | 9 |
| JT Brubaker RP | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 28-21 | 2.61 | 28 |
Cincinnati Reds
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .159 | .284 | .159 |
| Matt McLain 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 24 | .203 | .354 | .250 |
| Elly De La Cruz SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 23 | .282 | .363 | .577 |
| Sal Stewart 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .323 | .434 | .726 |
| Eugenio Suarez 3B· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .250 | .324 | .406 |
| Spencer Steer LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .207 | .242 | .414 |
| Dane Myers CF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .261 | .320 | .261 |
| Rece Hinds RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Tyler Stephenson C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .175 | .313 | .325 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .068 | .146 | .068 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder SP· | 6.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 90-57 | 3.52 | 90 |
| Brock Burke RP | 0.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-10 | 1.17 | 13 |
| Graham Ashcraft RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23-14 | 1.80 | 23 |
| Pierce Johnson RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-10 | 3.68 | 14 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningArraez walked.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
- 8th InningChapman lined into double play, third to second, Arraez doubled off second.
- 8th InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
- 7th InningRamos singled to right, Devers scored, Susac to second.3–8
- 8th InningMcLain walked.
Scoring Plays
- 7th InningRamos singled to right, Devers scored, Susac to second.3–8
- 4th InningDe La Cruz homered to center (442 feet).2–8
- 1st InningStewart homered to right center (387 feet), Friedl scored and McLain scored.0–3
- 2nd InningSusac doubled to left, Lee scored and Chapman scored.2–4
- 1st InningSuárez homered to right (349 feet).0–4
- 2nd InningStewart homered to right center (383 feet), McLain scored and De La Cruz scored.2–7