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In The Rafters

MIL @ MIA

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor7:10 PM ET⚾ Coleman Crow vs Janson JunkMLB.TVBrewers.TVMarlins.TV
Result readMilwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers 7 · Miami Marlins 5

Final
Milwaukee Brewers22-16-2+1.4 net/g (SOS-adj +1.4) · expected win rate 64% · last 10: 75%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Milwaukee Brewers gets the model’s nod thanks to Milwaukee Brewers’s margin advantage, with Milwaukee Brewers’s recent run providing the second tip. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 92%. Actual: Milwaukee Brewers by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Milwaukee Brewers

Miami Marlins

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut

Milwaukee Brewers

J.B. BukauskasDay-To-DayBrandon Woodruff15-Day-ILChristian Yelich10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge10-Day-ILRob Zastryzny60-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Milwaukee Brewers
BL B. Lockridge LF · #20 GM G. Mitchell CF · #5 SF Sal Frelick RF · #10 LR Luis Rengifo 3B · #13 JO Joey Ortiz SS · #3 BT Brice Turang 2B · #2 JB Jake Bauers 1B · #9 JM J. Misiorowski P · #32 WC W. Contreras C · #24
Miami Marlins
KS Kyle Stowers LF · #28 JM Jakob Marsee CF · #87 OC Owen Caissie RF · #17 GP Graham Pauley 3B · #21 OL Otto Lopez SS · #6 XE Xavier Edwards 2B · #9 CN Connor Norby 1B · #1 EP Eury Perez P · #39 LH Liam Hicks C · #34

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 🏃 DoubleRamírez doubled to left, Edwards scored.8th Inning4–4
  2. ScoreMarsee scored on Megill wild pitch.10th Inning7–5
  3. 🏃 DoubleMitchell doubled to left, Ortiz scored and Bauers scored, Rengifo to third.10th Inning7–4
  4. ScoreLopez homered to center (401 feet), Edwards scored.6th Inning4–3
  5. ScoreCaissie hit sacrifice fly to center, Lopez scored.4th Inning3–1
  6. 💣 Home RunRengifo scored on throwing error by catcher Ramírez, Jones stole third.4th Inning3–0

Scoring by Inning

Team12345678910RHE
Milwaukee Brewers0003010003790
Miami Marlins0001020101582

Milwaukee Brewers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Sal Frelick RF·1-6601000024.177.292.258
William Contreras C·1-5501000015.309.397.471
Brice Turang 2B·0-4410001224.281.410.531
Gary Sanchez C·0-2210003131.257.447.714
Joey Ortiz SS0-001000000.204.250.204
Jake Bauers 1B·3-4433001116.254.333.525
Luis Rengifo 3B·2-441210008.154.211.250
Trevor Megill RP0-000000000.000.000.000
Garrett Mitchell CF·2-4402301219.289.439.444
Greg Jones LF·0-5500100220.143.143.143
David Hamilton 3B·0-5500000229.186.340.186

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Coleman Crow SP·5.142214077-553.3877
DL Hall RP0.21110118-50.968
Grant Anderson RP1.000010017-103.3817
Angel Zerpa RP1.021111033-215.7333
Abner Uribe RP1.000021018-94.3218
Trevor Megill RP1.011002018-1110.2918

Miami Marlins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jakob Marsee CF·0-4410001021.156.275.221
Xavier Edwards 2B·2-4422001016.347.417.493
Agustin Ramirez C·1-5501100222.246.329.377
Liam Hicks C·1-5501000021.300.343.533
Otto Lopez SS·3-5523210220.347.400.583
Owen Caissie RF·1-220110018.245.300.434
Austin Slater LF0-110000019.182.296.182
Connor Norby 1B·0-4400000217.254.357.441
Javier Sanoja 3B·0-3300001017.333.362.400
Graham Pauley 3B·0-220000019.174.191.304
Heriberto Hernandez LF0-0000002011.149.286.191

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Janson Junk SP·5.164323093-574.5093
John King RP1.100002017-111.1717
Tyler Phillips RP1.110033042-220.7542
Pete Fairbanks RP1.000001012-89.0012
Calvin Faucher RP1.023111022-135.1422

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningSlater struck out swinging.
  2. 8th InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Swinging
  3. 7th InningSánchez walked, Turang to second, Contreras to third.
  4. 3rd InningHamilton grounded out to first.
  5. 2nd InningHicks flied out to left.

Scoring Plays

  1. 8th InningRamírez doubled to left, Edwards scored.4–4
  2. 10th InningMarsee scored on Megill wild pitch.7–5
  3. 10th InningMitchell doubled to left, Ortiz scored and Bauers scored, Rengifo to third.7–4
  4. 6th InningLopez homered to center (401 feet), Edwards scored.4–3
  5. 4th InningCaissie hit sacrifice fly to center, Lopez scored.3–1
  6. 4th InningRengifo scored on throwing error by catcher Ramírez, Jones stole third.3–0
  7. 4th InningJones grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bauers scored, Mitchell out at second, Rengifo to third.2–0
  8. 10th InningMarsee scored on Megill wild pitch.7–5
  9. 10th InningRengifo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Turang scored on error by catcher Ramírez, Bauers to second, Ortiz to third.5–4
  10. 6th InningRengifo doubled to center, Bauers scored.4–1
  11. 4th InningRengifo scored on throwing error by catcher Ramírez, Jones stole third.3–0
  12. 4th InningMitchell reached on infield single to second, Sánchez scored, Rengifo to second, Bauers to third.1–0

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